Related papers: Maximal Sensitive Dependence and the Optimal Path …
Near equilibrium, thermodynamic intuition suggests that fast, irreversible processes will dissipate more energy and entropy than slow, quasistatic processes connecting the same initial and final states. Here, we test the hypothesis that…
This work is an analytical calculation of the path probability for random dynamics of mechanical system described by Langevin equation with Gaussian noise. The result shows an exponential dependence of the probability on the action. In the…
The extinction and persistence of infective individuals are closely related to the random change of the environment. In this paper, via the random/stochastic SIRS models, we analyze qualitatively and quantitatively the impact caused by the…
We examine most-likely paths between initial and final states for diffusive quantum trajectories in continuously monitored pure-state qubits, obtained as extrema of a stochastic path integral. We demonstrate the possibility of "multipaths"…
During an epidemic, individual nodes in a network may adapt their connections to reduce the chance of infection. A common form of adaption is avoidance rewiring, where a noninfected node breaks a connection to an infected neighbor and forms…
We investigate how a catastrophic event (modeled as a temporary fall of the reproduction rate) increases the extinction probability of an isolated self-regulated stochastic population. Using a variant of the Verhulst logistic model as an…
An optimal control for a dynamical system optimizes a certain objective function. Here we consider the construction of an optimal control for a stochastic dynamical system with a random structure, Poisson perturbations and random jumps,…
Established populations often exhibit oscillations in their sizes. If a population is isolated, intrinsic stochasticity of elemental processes can ultimately bring it to extinction. Here we study extinction of oscillating populations in a…
Biological populations are subject to fluctuating environmental conditions. Different adaptive strategies can allow them to cope with these fluctuations: specialization to one particular environmental condition, adoption of a generalist…
The sensitive dependence of chaos on parameters is a topic of great interest in the study of integrability and stability of dynamical systems. Previous work has proposed ways to identify the sensitive dependence on parameters by topological…
The paper develops a general methodology for analyzing policies with path-dependency (hysteresis) in stochastic models with forward looking optimizing agents. Our main application is a macro-climate model with a path-dependent climate…
The extinction of a single species due to demographic stochasticity is analyzed. The discrete nature of the individual agents and the Poissonian noise related to the birth-death processes result in local extinction of a metastable…
This paper deals with a new epidemiological model of SIRS with stochastic perturbations. The primary objective is to establish the existence of a unique non-negative nonlocal solution. Using the basic reproduction number $\mathscr{R}_0$…
Markov models are widely used to describe processes of stochastic dynamics. Here, we show that Markov models are a natural consequence of the dynamical principle of Maximum Caliber. First, we show that when there are different possible…
The principle of maximum irreversible is proved to be a consequence of a stochastic order of the paths inside the phase space; indeed, the system evolves on the greatest path in the stochastic order. The result obtained is that, at the…
Transition pathways of stochastic dynamical systems are typically approximated by instantons. Here we show, using a dynamical system containing two competing pathways, that at low-to-intermediate temperatures, instantons can fail to capture…
Extinction of a long-lived isolated stochastic population can be described as an exponentially slow decay of quasi-stationary probability distribution of the population size. We address extinction of a population in a two-population system…
We study the speed of extinction of continuous state branching processes in a L\'evy environment, where the associated L\'evy process oscillates. Assuming that the L\'evy process satisfies the Spitzer's condition and the existence of some…
Stochastic effects may cause fade-out of an infectious disease in a population immediately after an epidemic outbreak. We develop WKB theory to determine the most probable path of the system toward epidemic fade-out and to evaluate the…
The intensification and increased frequency of weather extremes is emerging as one of the most important aspects of climate change. We use Monte Carlo simulation to understand and predict the consequences of variations in trends (i.e.,…