Related papers: Is It Real, or Is It Randomized?: A Financial Turi…
We compare complex networks built from the game of go and obtained from databases of human-played games with those obtained from computer-played games. Our investigations show that statistical features of the human-based networks and the…
We discuss the objectives of automation equipped with non-trivial decision making, or creating artificial intelligence, in the financial markets and provide a possible alternative. Intelligence might be an unintended consequence of…
For the pedestrian observer, financial markets look completely random with erratic and uncontrollable behavior. To a large extend, this is correct. At first approximation the difference between real price changes and the random walk model…
For the pedestrian observer, financial markets look completely random with erratic and uncontrollable behavior. To a large extend, this is correct. At first approximation the difference between real price changes and the random walk model…
We present "Human or Not?", an online game inspired by the Turing test, that measures the capability of AI chatbots to mimic humans in dialog, and of humans to tell bots from other humans. Over the course of a month, the game was played by…
We propose an alternative to the Turing test that removes the inherent asymmetry between humans and machines in Turing's original imitation game. In this new test, both humans and machines judge each other. We argue that this makes the test…
Financial and gambling markets are ostensibly similar and hence strategies from one could potentially be applied to the other. Financial markets have been extensively studied, resulting in numerous theorems and models, while gambling…
The unprecedented access offered by the World Wide Web brings with it the potential to gather huge amounts of data on human activities. Here we exploit this by using a toy model of financial markets, the Minority Game (MG), to investigate…
This paper presents an evaluation framework that attempts to quantify the "degree of realism" of simulated financial time series, whatever the simulation method could be, with the aim of discover unknown characteristics that are not being…
We introduce an evolutionary game with feedback between perception and reality, which we call the reality game. It is a game of chance in which the probabilities for different objective outcomes (e.g., heads or tails in a coin toss) depend…
The Turing test may or may not be a valid test of machine intelligence. But in an age of generative AI, the test describes the positions we humans occupy. Judging whether or not something is human or machine produced is an everyday…
In his seminal paper ``Computing Machinery and Intelligence'', Alan Turing introduced the ``imitation game'' as part of exploring the concept of machine intelligence. The Turing Test has since been the subject of much analysis, debate,…
We analyze complexity of financial (and general economic) processes by comparing classical and quantum-like models for randomness. Our analysis implies that it might be that a quantum-like probabilistic description is more natural for…
Consider a coin tossing experiment which consists of tossing one of two coins at a time, according to a renewal process. The first coin is fair and the second has probability $1/2 + \theta$, $\theta \in [-1/2,1/2]$, $\theta$ unknown but…
Decisions taken in our everyday lives are based on a wide variety of information so it is generally very difficult to assess what are the strategies that guide us. Stock market therefore provides a rich environment to study how people take…
What would you do if you were invited to play a game where you were given \$25 and allowed to place bets for 30 minutes on a coin that you were told was biased to come up heads 60% of the time? This is exactly what we did, gathering 61…
We discuss how minimal financial market models can be constructed by bridging the gap between two existing, but incomplete, market models: a model in which a population of virtual traders make decisions based on common global information…
Modern mainstream financial theory is underpinned by the efficient market hypothesis, which posits the rapid incorporation of relevant information into asset pricing. Limited prior studies in the operational research literature have…
The discrepancy between realized volatility and the market's view of volatility has been known to predict individual equity options at the monthly horizon. It is not clear how this predictability depends on a forecast's ability to predict…
Can the theory that reality is a simulation be tested? We investigate this question based on the assumption that if the system performing the simulation is finite (i.e. has limited resources), then to achieve low computational complexity,…