Related papers: Testing for financial crashes using the Log Period…
This paper provides robust, new evidence on the causal drivers of market troughs. We demonstrate that conclusions about these triggers are critically sensitive to model specification, moving beyond restrictive linear models with a flexible…
This paper investigates the structural dynamics of stock market volatility through the Financial Chaos Index, a tensor- and eigenvalue-based measure designed to capture realized volatility via mutual fluctuations among asset prices.…
Investigations of inverse statistics (a concept borrowed from turbulence) in stock markets, exemplified with filtered Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ, have uncovered a novel stylized fact that the distribution of exit time…
We study the relaxation dynamics of a financial market just after the occurrence of a crash by investigating the number of times the absolute value of an index return is exceeding a given threshold value. We show that the empirical…
The stability of stochastic Model Predictive Control (MPC) subject to additive disturbances is often demonstrated in the literature by constructing Lyapunov-like inequalities that ensure closed-loop performance bounds and boundedness of the…
We study the statistical properties of volatility---a measure of how much the market is likely to fluctuate. We estimate the volatility by the local average of the absolute price changes. We analyze (a) the S&P 500 stock index for the…
We study precursors to the global market crash that occurred on all main stock exchanges throughout the world in October 2008 about three weeks after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. on 15 September. We examine the collective…
In this empirical paper we show that in the months following a crash there is a distinct connection between the fall of stock prices and the increase in the range of interest rates for a sample of bonds. This variable, which is often…
Despite original claims of a first-order transition in the product rule model proposed by Achlioptas et al. [Science 323, 1453 (2009)], recent studies indicate that this percolation model, in fact, displays a continuous transition. The…
Catastrophic events, though rare, do occur and when they occur, they have devastating effects. It is, therefore, of utmost importance to understand the complexity of the underlying dynamics and signatures of catastrophic events, such as…
Financial markets are systems with the complex behavior, that can be hardly analyzed by means of linear methods. Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA) is a nonlinear methodology, which is able to work with the nonstationary and short…
We study historical correlations and lead-lag relationships between individual stock risk (volatility of daily stock returns) and market risk (volatility of daily returns of a market-representative portfolio) in the US stock market. We…
We study the martingale property and moment explosions of a signature volatility model, where the volatility process of the log-price is given by a linear form of the signature of a time-extended Brownian motion. Excluding trivial cases, we…
We investigate the spatial and temporal structures of four financial markets in Greater China. In particular, we uncover different characteristics of the four markets by analyzing the sector and subsector structures which are detected…
In this paper, we investigate the cooling-off effect (opposite to the magnet effect) from two aspects. Firstly, from the viewpoint of dynamics, we study the existence of the cooling-off effect by following the dynamical evolution of some…
Following the thermodynamic formulation of multifractal measure that was shown to be capable of detecting large fluctuations at an early stage, here we propose a new index which permits us to distinguish events like financial crisis in real…
We study the temporal fluctuations in time-dependent stock prices (both individual and composite) as a stochastic phenomenon using general techniques and methods of nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. In particular, we analyze stock price…
The persistence phenomenon is studied in the Japanese financial market by using a novel mapping of the time evolution of the values of shares quoted on the Nikkei Index onto Ising spins. The method is applied to historical end of day data…
The understanding of complex systems has become a central issue because complex systems exist in a wide range of scientific disciplines. Time series are typical experimental results we have about complex systems. In the analysis of such…
This paper addresses the statistical properties of time series driven by rational bubbles a la Blanchard and Watson (1982), corresponding to multiplicative maps, whose study has recently be revived recently in physics as a mechanism of…