Related papers: Testing for financial crashes using the Log Period…
In complex systems like financial market, risk tolerance of individuals is crucial for system resilience.The single-security price limit, designed as risk tolerance to protect investors by avoiding sharp price fluctuation, is blamed for…
In this paper the diffusion entropy technique is applied to investigate the scaling behavior of financial markets. The scaling behaviors of four representative stock markets, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard&Poor 500, Heng Seng Index,…
We analyze whether the prediction of the fractal markets hypothesis about a dominance of specific investment horizons during turbulent times holds. To do so, we utilize the continuous wavelet transform analysis and obtained wavelet power…
We propose a reduced form set of two coupled continuous time equations linking the price of a representative asset and the price of a bond, the later quantifying the cost of borrowing. The feedbacks between asset prices and bonds are…
The stability of stochastic Model Predictive Control (MPC) subject to additive disturbances is often demonstrated in the literature by constructing Lyapunov-like inequalities that guarantee closed-loop performance bounds and boundedness of…
This paper proposes Proximal Policy Optimization with Linear Temporal Logic Constraints (PPO-LTL), a framework that integrates safety constraints written in LTL into PPO for safe reinforcement learning. LTL constraints offer rigorous…
We argue that the present crisis and stalling economy continuing since 2007 are rooted in the delusionary belief in policies based on a "perpetual money machine" type of thinking. We document strong evidence that, since the early 1980s,…
Financial networks are dynamic. To assess their systemic importance to the world-wide economic network and avert losses we need models that take the time variations of the links and nodes into account. Using the methodology of classical…
Diffusion in a linear potential in the presence of position-dependent killing is used to mimic a default process. Different assumptions regarding transport coefficients, initial conditions, and elasticity of the killing measure lead to…
Machine learning models used for high-stakes predictions in domains like credit risk face critical degradation due to concept drift, requiring robust and transparent adaptation mechanisms. We propose an architecture, where a dedicated…
We propose an interacting particle system to model the evolution of a system of banks with mutual exposures. In this model, a bank defaults when its normalized asset value hits a lower threshold, and its default causes instantaneous losses…
The dynamics of prices in financial markets has been studied intensively both experimentally (data analysis) and theoretically (models). Nevertheless, a complete stochastic characterization of volatility is still lacking. What it is well…
Empirical diagnosis of stability has received considerable attention, mostly focused on variance metrics for early warning signals of abrupt system change. Despite this, the theoretical foundation and application has been limited to…
Identifying unambiguously the presence of a bubble in an asset price remains an unsolved problem in standard econometric and financial economic approaches. A large part of the problem is that the fundamental value of an asset is, in…
Cross-sectional signatures of market panic were recently discussed on daily time scales in [1], extended here to a study of cross-sectional properties of stocks on intra-day time scales. We confirm specific intra-day patterns of dispersion…
The application of systems and control theory to membrane physiology is presented here. Modeling efforts have focused on describing those physiologically realistic mechanisms which govern the regulation of membrane permeability in nerve.…
Econophysics and econometrics agree that there is a correlation between volume and volatility in a time series. Using empirical data and their distributions, we further investigate this correlation and discover new ways that volatility and…
A taxonomy of large financial crashes proposed in the literature locates the burst of speculative bubbles due to endogenous causes in the framework of extreme stock market crashes, defined as falls of market prices that are outlier with…
We address the problem of banking system resilience by applying off-equilibrium statistical physics to a system of particles, representing the economic agents, modelled according to the theoretical foundation of the current banking…
Last passage percolation (LPP) is a model of a directed metric and a zero-temperature polymer where the main observable is a directed path evolving in a random environment accruing as energy the sum of the random weights along itself. When…