Related papers: Soccer: is scoring goals a predictable Poissonian …
In this paper, we study collective interaction dynamics emerging in the game of football-soccer. To do so, we surveyed a database containing body-sensors traces measured during three professional football matches, where we observed…
Information extracted from social media streams has been leveraged to forecast the outcome of a large number of real-world events, from political elections to stock market fluctuations. An increasing amount of studies demonstrates how the…
Soccer is a globally popular sport with a vast audience, in this paper, we consider constructing an automatic soccer game commentary model to improve the audiences' viewing experience. In general, we make the following contributions: First,…
By the method of Poissonization we confirm some existing results concerning consistent estimation of the structural distribution function in the situation of a large number of rare events. Inconsistency of the so called natural estimator is…
In this paper a new heuristic optimization algorithm has been introduced based on the performance of the major football leagues within each season in EU countries. The algorithm starts with an initial population including three different…
In soccer, contextual player performance metrics are invaluable to coaches. For example, the ability to perform under pressure during matches distinguishes the elite from the average. Appropriate pressure metric enables teams to assess…
The Poisson process is the most elementary continuous-time stochastic process that models a stream of repeating events. It is uniquely characterised by a single parameter called the rate. Instead of a single value for this rate, we here…
Besides of complexities concerning to football championships, it is identified some regularities in them. These regularities refer to goal distributions by goal-players and by games. In particular, the goal distribution by goal-players it…
When facing a heavily-favored opponent, an underdog must be willing to assume greater-than-average risk. In statistical language, one would say that an underdog must be willing to adopt a strategy whose outcome has a larger-than-average…
Statistics is sometimes described as the science of reasoning under uncertainty. Statistical models provide one view of this uncertainty, but what is frequently neglected is the 'invisible' portion of uncertainty: that assumed not to exist…
Computer-aided support and analysis are becoming increasingly important in the modern world of sports. The scouting of potential prospective players, performance as well as match analysis, and the monitoring of training programs rely more…
This study developed a new explainable artificial intelligence algorithm called PassAI, which classifies successful or failed passes in a soccer game and explains its rationale using both tracking and passer's seasonal stats information.…
Analyzing football score data with statistical techniques, we investigate how the highly co-operative nature of the game is reflected in averaged properties such as the distributions of scored goals for the home and away teams. It turns out…
The prevalent model by Dixon and Coles (1997) extends the double Poisson model where two independent Poisson distributions model the number of goals scored by each team by moving probabilities between the scores 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, and 1-1. We…
In recent years excessive monetization of football and professionalism among the players has been argued to have affected the quality of the match in different ways. On the one hand, playing football has become a high-income profession and…
When predictions support decisions they may influence the outcome they aim to predict. We call such predictions performative; the prediction influences the target. Performativity is a well-studied phenomenon in policy-making that has so far…
We show that the Brier game of prediction is mixable and find the optimal learning rate and substitution function for it. The resulting prediction algorithm is applied to predict results of football and tennis matches. The theoretical…
Accurate prediction of FIFA World Cup match outcomes holds significant value for analysts, coaches, bettors, and fans. This paper presents a machine learning framework specifically designed to forecast match winners in FIFA World Cup. By…
In a soccer game, the information provided by detecting and tracking brings crucial clues to further analyze and understand some tactical aspects of the game, including individual and team actions. State-of-the-art tracking algorithms…
The paper presents a plus-minus rating for use in association football (soccer). We first describe the standard plus-minus methodology as used in basketball and ice-hockey and then adapt it for use in soccer. The usual goal-differential…