English
Related papers

Related papers: Soccer: is scoring goals a predictable Poissonian …

200 papers

In this paper, we study collective interaction dynamics emerging in the game of football-soccer. To do so, we surveyed a database containing body-sensors traces measured during three professional football matches, where we observed…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-08-18 A. Chacoma , N. Almeira , J. I. Perotti , O. V. Billoni

Information extracted from social media streams has been leveraged to forecast the outcome of a large number of real-world events, from political elections to stock market fluctuations. An increasing amount of studies demonstrates how the…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2017-03-07 Lei Le , Emilio Ferrara , Alessandro Flammini

Soccer is a globally popular sport with a vast audience, in this paper, we consider constructing an automatic soccer game commentary model to improve the audiences' viewing experience. In general, we make the following contributions: First,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Jiayuan Rao , Haoning Wu , Chang Liu , Yanfeng Wang , Weidi Xie

By the method of Poissonization we confirm some existing results concerning consistent estimation of the structural distribution function in the situation of a large number of rare events. Inconsistency of the so called natural estimator is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Bert van Es , Stamatis Kolios

In this paper a new heuristic optimization algorithm has been introduced based on the performance of the major football leagues within each season in EU countries. The algorithm starts with an initial population including three different…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-06-18 Erfan Khaji

In soccer, contextual player performance metrics are invaluable to coaches. For example, the ability to perform under pressure during matches distinguishes the elite from the average. Appropriate pressure metric enables teams to assess…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-08 Chaoyi Gu , Jiaming Na , Yisheng Pei , Varuna De Silva

The Poisson process is the most elementary continuous-time stochastic process that models a stream of repeating events. It is uniquely characterised by a single parameter called the rate. Instead of a single value for this rate, we here…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-05 Alexander Erreygers , Jasper De Bock

Besides of complexities concerning to football championships, it is identified some regularities in them. These regularities refer to goal distributions by goal-players and by games. In particular, the goal distribution by goal-players it…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 L. C. Malacarne , R. S. Mendes

When facing a heavily-favored opponent, an underdog must be willing to assume greater-than-average risk. In statistical language, one would say that an underdog must be willing to adopt a strategy whose outcome has a larger-than-average…

Physics and Society · Physics 2011-11-04 Brian Skinner

Statistics is sometimes described as the science of reasoning under uncertainty. Statistical models provide one view of this uncertainty, but what is frequently neglected is the 'invisible' portion of uncertainty: that assumed not to exist…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-18 Oliver L. Pescott , Robin J. Boyd , Gary D. Powney , Gavin B. Stewart

Computer-aided support and analysis are becoming increasingly important in the modern world of sports. The scouting of potential prospective players, performance as well as match analysis, and the monitoring of training programs rely more…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-10-22 Jonas Theiner , Wolfgang Gritz , Eric Müller-Budack , Robert Rein , Daniel Memmert , Ralph Ewerth

This study developed a new explainable artificial intelligence algorithm called PassAI, which classifies successful or failed passes in a soccer game and explains its rationale using both tracking and passer's seasonal stats information.…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2026-04-06 Ryota Takamido , Jun Ota , Hiroki Nakamoto

Analyzing football score data with statistical techniques, we investigate how the highly co-operative nature of the game is reflected in averaged properties such as the distributions of scored goals for the home and away teams. It turns out…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-11-13 Elmar Bittner , Andreas Nussbaumer , Wolfhard Janke , Martin Weigel

The prevalent model by Dixon and Coles (1997) extends the double Poisson model where two independent Poisson distributions model the number of goals scored by each team by moving probabilities between the scores 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, and 1-1. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-06 Rouven Michels , Marius Ötting , Dimitris Karlis

In recent years excessive monetization of football and professionalism among the players has been argued to have affected the quality of the match in different ways. On the one hand, playing football has become a high-income profession and…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-01-05 Victor Martins Maimone , Taha Yasseri

When predictions support decisions they may influence the outcome they aim to predict. We call such predictions performative; the prediction influences the target. Performativity is a well-studied phenomenon in policy-making that has so far…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-02 Juan C. Perdomo , Tijana Zrnic , Celestine Mendler-Dünner , Moritz Hardt

We show that the Brier game of prediction is mixable and find the optimal learning rate and substitution function for it. The resulting prediction algorithm is applied to predict results of football and tennis matches. The theoretical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2009-11-02 Vladimir Vovk , Fedor Zhdanov

Accurate prediction of FIFA World Cup match outcomes holds significant value for analysts, coaches, bettors, and fans. This paper presents a machine learning framework specifically designed to forecast match winners in FIFA World Cup. By…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-07 Ali Al-Bustami , Zaid Ghazal

In a soccer game, the information provided by detecting and tracking brings crucial clues to further analyze and understand some tactical aspects of the game, including individual and team actions. State-of-the-art tracking algorithms…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-11-23 Samuel Hurault , Coloma Ballester , Gloria Haro

The paper presents a plus-minus rating for use in association football (soccer). We first describe the standard plus-minus methodology as used in basketball and ice-hockey and then adapt it for use in soccer. The usual goal-differential…

Applications · Statistics 2017-06-16 Tarak Kharrat , Javier López Peña , Ian McHale