Related papers: Man made global warming explained - closing the bl…
Multiple changes in Earth's climate system have been observed over the past decades. Determining how likely each of these changes are to have been caused by human influence, is important for decision making on mitigation and adaptation…
The warming trend of the last decades is now so strong that it is discernible in local temperature observations. This opens the possibility to compare the trend to the warming predicted by comprehensive climate models (GCMs), which up to…
In this paper we will prove that GCM-models used in IPCC report AR5 fail to calculate the influences of the low cloud cover changes on the global temperature. That is why those models give a very small natural temperature change leaving a…
The climate system is a forced, dissipative, nonlinear, complex and heterogeneous system that is out of thermodynamic equilibrium. The system exhibits natural variability on many scales of motion, in time as well as space, and it is subject…
There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether the present global warming is increasing local and global temperature variability. The central methodological issues of this debate relate to the proper treatment of normalised…
The mean world climate has warmed since the 19th Century as the anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases has increased the atmospheric opacity to thermal infrared radiation. Has this warming increased the frequency or severity of…
How did it all begin? Although this question has undoubtedly lingered for as long as humans have walked the Earth, the answer still eludes us. Yet since my grandparents were born, scientists have been able to refine this question to a…
There is argument as to the extent to which there has been an increase over the past few decades in the frequency of the extremes of climatic parameters, such as temperature, storminess, precipitation, etc, an obvious point being that…
Global temperature is a fundamental climate metric highly correlated with sea level, which implies that keeping shorelines near their present location requires keeping global temperature within or close to its preindustrial Holocene range.…
Despite major advances in climate science over the last 30 years, persistent uncertainties in projections of future climate change remain. Climate projections are produced with increasingly complex models which attempt to represent key…
In this lengthy letter, we wanted to discuss the concept of climate based on definitions established for over a century and direct observations that we have been collecting for more than a century as well. To do this, we present and discuss…
We describe how cosmology has converged towards a beautiful model of the Universe: the Big Bang Universe. We praise this model, but show there is a dark side to it. This dark side is usually called ``the cosmological problems'': a set of…
As a consequence of greenhouse forcing, all state of the art general circulation models predict a positive temperature trend that is greater for the troposphere than the surface. This predicted positive trend increases in value with…
Modern weather and climate models share a common heritage, and often even components, however they are used in different ways to answer fundamentally different questions. As such, attempts to emulate them using machine learning should…
To assess the impact of potential future climate pledges after the first Global Stocktake, we propose a simple, transparent framework for developing emission and temperature scenarios by country. We show that current pledges with…
Several complicated non-linear models exist which simulate the physical processes leading to fluctuations in global climate. Some of these more advanced models use observations to constrain various parameters involved. However, they tend to…
The IPCC AR6 assessment of the impacts and risks associated with projected climate changes for the 21st century is both alarming and ambiguous. According to computer projections, the global surface may warm from 1.3 to 8.0 {\deg}C by 2100,…
Projecting climate change is a generalization problem: we extrapolate the recent past using physical models across past, present, and future climates. Current climate models require representations of processes that occur at scales smaller…
Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change implies that fast-feedback equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is 1.2 +/- 0.3{\deg}C (2$\sigma$) per W/m$^2$. Consistent analysis of temperature over the full…
This essay, written by a statistician and a climate scientist, describes our view of the gap that exists between current practice in mainstream climate science, and the practical needs of policymakers charged with exploring possible…