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This paper investigates how two important sources of risk -- market tail risk and extreme market volatility risk -- are priced into the cross-section of asset returns across various investment horizons. To identify such risks, we propose a…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2021-12-13 Jozef Baruník , Matěj Nevrla

We establish some asymptotic expansions for infinite weighted convolution of distributions having regular varying tails. Various applications to statistics and probability are developed.

Probability · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Ph. Barbe , W. P. McCormick

For a stochastic difference equation $D_n=A_nD_{n-1}+B_n$ which stabilises upon time we study tail distribution asymptotics of $D_n$ under the assumption that the distribution of $\log(1+|A_1|+|B_1|)$ is heavy-tailed, that is, all its…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-28 Dmitry Korshunov

We consider a spatial stochastic model of wireless cellular networks, where the base stations (BSs) are deployed according to a simple and stationary point process on $\mathbb{R}^d$, $d\ge2$. In this model, we investigate tail asymptotics…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-03-16 Naoto Miyoshi , Tomoyuki Shirai

In this paper, we study critical and subcritical branching $\alpha$-stable processes, $\alpha \in (0, 2)$. We obtain the exact asymptotic behaviors of the tails of the maximal positions of all subcritical branching $\alpha$-stable processes…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-09 Haojie Hou , Yiyang Jiang , Yan-Xia Ren , Renming Song

Hypothesis testing results often rely on simple, yet important assumptions about the behaviour of the distribution of p-values under the null and the alternative. We examine tests for one dimensional parameters of interest that converge to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-06 Yanbo Tang , Radu Craiu , Lei Sun

We prove the reduction principle for asymptotics of functionals of vector random fields with weakly and strongly dependent components. These functionals can be used to construct new classes of random fields with skewed and heavy-tailed…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-05-04 Andriy Olenko , Dareen Omari

In this paper, we introduce reduced-bias estimators for the estimation of the tail index of a Pareto-type distribution. This is achieved through the use of a regularised weighted least squares with an exponential regression model for…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-19 E. Ocran , R. Minkah , G. Kallah-Dagadu , K. Doku-Amponsah

The aim of this article is to determine a new six-parameter Beta Weibull distribution and its various associated functions, namely the cumulative distribution, survival, probability density and hazard functions. Next, we determine the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-07 Didier Alain Njamen Njomen , Fidel Djongreba Ndikwa

This paper deals with the estimation of reliability $R=P(Y<X)$ when $X$ is a random strength of a component subjected to a random stress $Y$ and $(X,Y)$ follows a bivariate Rayleigh distribution. The maximum likelihood estimator of $R$ and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-05-20 Abbas Pak , Nayereh Bagheri Khoolenjani , Ali Akbar Jafari

We provide a necessary and sufficient condition for the ratio of two jointly alpha-Frechet random variables to be regularly varying. This condition is based on the spectral representation of the joint distribution and is easy to check in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-02-04 Yizao Wang

We provide exact large-time equivalents of the density and upper tail distributions of the exponential functional of a subordinator in terms of its Laplace exponents. This improves previous results on the logarithmic asymptotic behaviour of…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-17 Bénédicte Haas

In this paper we compare and contrast the behavior of the posterior predictive distribution to the risk of the maximum a posteriori estimator for the random features regression model in the overparameterized regime. We will focus on the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-30 Youngsoo Baek , Samuel I. Berchuck , Sayan Mukherjee

We discuss a general method to construct correlated binomial distributions by imposing several consistent relations on the joint probability function. We obtain self-consistency relations for the conditional correlations and conditional…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 M. Hisakado , K. Kitsukawa , S. Mori

In this paper, we propose a regression model where the response variable is beta prime distributed using a new parameterization of this distribution that is indexed by mean and precision parameters. The proposed regression model is useful…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-23 Marcelo Bourguignon , Manoel Santos-Neto , Mário de Castro

Misspecified models often provide useful information about the true data generating distribution. For example, if $y$ is a non-linear function of $x$ the least squares estimator $\hat{\beta}$ is an estimate of $\beta$, the slope of the best…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-17 James P. Long

The purpose of the present paper is to give unified expressions to the characteristic functions of all elliptical and related distributions. Those distributions including the multivariate elliptical symmetric distributions and some…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-14 Chuancun Yin , Hua Dong

Extreme value theory offers a statistical framework for quantifying the risk of rare events, with the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution providing the canonical limit model for univariate threshold exceedances. In many applications,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-15 Mirco Lescart , Anna Kiriliouk , Philippe Naveau

The study of loss function distributions is critical to characterize a model's behaviour on a given machine learning problem. For example, while the quality of a model is commonly determined by the average loss assessed on a testing set,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-06 Etrit Haxholli , Marco Lorenzi

Permutations of correlated sequences of random variables appear naturally in a variety of applications such as graph matching and asynchronous communications. In this paper, the asymptotic statistical behavior of such permuted sequences is…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2020-01-22 Farhad Shirani , Siddharth Garg , Elza Erkip