Related papers: Stochastic modeling of Congress
We introduce a new statistical tool (the TP-statistic and TE-statistic) designed specifically to compare the behavior of the sample tail of distributions with power-law and exponential tails as a function of the lower threshold u. One…
We study a scenario under which variable step random walks give anomalous statistics. We begin by analyzing the Martingale Central Limit Theorem to find a sufficient condition for the limit distribution to be non-Gaussian. We note that the…
Over the years, American politics have become increasingly polarized. In the current political landscape, a president cannot easily collaborate with the opposite party and pass legislature. Ideologies between parties have drifted apart to…
We investigate whether one can determine from the transcripts of U.S. Congressional floor debates whether the speeches represent support of or opposition to proposed legislation. To address this problem, we exploit the fact that these…
We introduce a stochastic price model where, together with a random component, a moving average of logarithmic prices contributes to the price formation. Our model is tested against financial datasets, showing an extremely good agreement…
We propose a model for equity trading in a population of agents where each agent acts to achieve his or her target stock-to-bond ratio, and, as a feedback mechanism, follows a market adaptive strategy. In this model only a fraction of…
This paper studies macroeconomic forecasting and variable selection using a folded-concave penalized regression with a very large number of predictors. The penalized regression approach leads to sparse estimates of the regression…
This paper is concerned with asymptotic behavior of a variety of functionals of increments of continuous semimartingales. Sampling times are assumed to follow a rather general discretization scheme. If an underlying semimartingale is…
The evolution of open source software projects in Linux distributions offers a remarkable example of a growing complex self-organizing adaptive system, exhibiting Zipf's law over four full decades. We present three tests of the usually…
We perform a parallel analysis of the spectral density of (i) the logarithm of price and (ii) the daily number of trades of a set of stocks traded in the New York Stock Exchange. The stocks are selected to be representative of a wide range…
This paper investigates the dynamics of in the S&P500 index from daily returns for the last 30 years. Using a stochastic geometry technique, each S&P500 yearly batch of data is embedded in a subspace that can be accurately described by a…
The US Supreme Court throughout the 20th century has been characterized as being divided between liberals and conservatives, suggesting that justices with similar ideologies would have voted similarly had they overlapped in tenure. What if…
The stochastic $\phi^4$-theory in $d-$dimensions dynamically develops domain wall structures within which the order parameter is not continuous. We develop a statistical theory for the $\phi^4$-theory driven with a random forcing which is…
We investigate the general problem of how to model the kinematics of stock prices without considering the dynamical causes of motion. We propose a stochastic process with long-range correlated absolute returns. We find that the model is…
Many studies in Economics and other disciplines have been reporting distributions following power-law behavior (i.e distributions of incomes (Pareto's law), city sizes (Zipf's law), frequencies of words in long sequences of text etc.)[1, 6,…
Campaign analysis is an integral part of American democracy and has many complexities in its dynamics. Experts have long sought to understand these dynamics and evaluate campaign performance using a variety of techniques. We explore…
At high levels, the asymptotic distribution of a stationary, regularly varying Markov chain is conveniently given by its tail process. The latter takes the form of a geometric random walk, the increment distribution depending on the sign of…
The study of the dynamic behavior of cross-sectional ranks over time for functional data and the ranks of the observed curves at each time point and their temporal evolution can yield valuable insights into the time dynamics of functional…
The recent availability of large databases allows to study macroscopic properties of many complex systems. However, inferring a model from a fit of empirical data without any knowledge of the dynamics might lead to erroneous interpretations…
The stochastic dynamics of the multi-state voter model is investigated on a class of complex networks made of non-overlapping cliques, each hosting a political candidate and interacting with the others via Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi links. Numerical…