Related papers: Stochastic modeling of Congress
This paper offers a new class of models of the term structure of interest rates. We allow each instantaneous forward rate to be driven by a different stochastic shock, constrained in such a way as to keep the forward rate curve continuous.…
The polarization of political opinions among members of the U.S. legislative chambers measured by their voting records is greater today than it was thirty years ago. Previous research efforts to find causes of such increase have suggested…
We investigate co-sponsorship among lawmakers by applying the principal-component analysis to the bills introduced in the 20th National Assembly of Korea. The most relevant factor for co-sponsorship is their party membership, and we clearly…
We study the Heston model, where the stock price dynamics is governed by a geometrical (multiplicative) Brownian motion with stochastic variance. We solve the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation exactly and, after integrating out the…
Social dynamics determined by voting in a stochastic environment is analyzed for a society composed of two cohesive groups of similar size. Within the model of random walks determined by voting, explicit formulas are derived for the capital…
Recently several authors have proposed stochastic models of the growth of the Web graph that give rise to power-law distributions. These models are based on the notion of preferential attachment leading to the ``rich get richer''…
This article is concerned with a general class of stochastic spatial models for the dynamics of opinions. Like in the voter model, individuals are located on the vertex set of a connected graph and update their opinion at a constant rate…
We show that power-law analyses of financial commentaries from newspaper web-sites can be used to identify stock market bubbles, supplementing traditional volatility analyses. Using a four-year corpus of 17,713 online, finance-related…
The voter model is a classical interacting particle system, modelling how global consensus is formed by local imitation. We analyse the time to consensus for a particular family of voter models when the underlying structure is a scale-free…
The original Leader-Follower model, proposed in \cite{zhao2018understanding}, categorizes agents with opinions in $[-1,1]$ into a follower group, a leader group with a positive target opinion in $[0,1]$, and a leader group with a negative…
Modeling U.S. Congressional legislation and roll-call votes has received significant attention in previous literature. However, while legislators across 50 state governments and D.C. propose over 100,000 bills each year, and on average…
Roll call data are widely used to assess legislators' preferences and ideology, as well as test theories of legislative behavior. In particular, roll call data is often used to determine whether the revealed preferences of legislators are…
We study the dynamics of opinion formation in a heterogeneous voter model on a complete graph, in which each agent is endowed with an integer fitness parameter $k \ge 0$, in addition to its $+$ or $-$ opinion state. The evolution of the…
Scaling limits are analyzed for stochastic continuous opinion dynamics systems, also known as gossip models. In such models, agents update their vector-valued opinion to a convex combination (possibly agent- and opinion-dependent) of their…
We introduce a model of long-range interacting particles evolving under a stochastic Monte Carlo dynamics, in which possible increase or decrease in the values of the dynamical variables is accepted with preassigned probabilities. For…
We build simple models for the distribution of voting patterns in a group, using the Supreme Court of the United States as an example. The least structured, or maximum entropy, model that is consistent with the observed pairwise…
We analyze time evolution of statistical distributions of citations to scientific papers published in one year. While these distributions can be fitted by a power-law dependence we find that they are nonstationary and the exponent of the…
We prove a law of large numbers and a functional central limit theorem for multivariate Hawkes processes observed over a time interval $[0,T]$ in the limit $T \rightarrow \infty$. We further exhibit the asymptotic behaviour of the…
Collective leadership and herding may arise in standard models of opinion dynamics as an interplay of a strong separation of time scales within the population and its hierarchical organization. Using the voter model as a simple opinion…
We investigate the use of the Hurst exponent, dynamically computed over a moving time-window, to evaluate the level of stability/instability of financial firms. Financial firms bailed-out as a consequence of the 2007-2010 credit crisis show…