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Related papers: Bayesian posterior probabilities: revisited

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In recent years, model collapse has become a critical issue in language model training, making it essential to understand the underlying mechanisms driving this phenomenon. In this paper, we investigate recursive parametric model training…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-23 Shirong Xu , Hengzhi He , Guang Cheng

Many modern experiments, such as microarray gene expression and genome-wide association studies, present the problem of estimating a large number of parallel effects. Bayesian inference is a popular approach for analyzing such data by…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-26 J G Liao , Arthur Berg , Timothy L McMurry

We consider Bayesian nonparametric inference in the right-censoring survival model, where modeling is made at the level of the hazard rate. We derive posterior limiting distributions for linear functionals of the hazard, and then for `many'…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-01 Ismaël Castillo , Stéphanie van der Pas

Counterfactual explanations utilize feature perturbations to analyze the outcome of an original decision and recommend an actionable recourse. We argue that it is beneficial to provide several alternative explanations rather than a single…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-24 Natraj Raman , Daniele Magazzeni , Sameena Shah

We consider statistical inference in the density estimation model using a tree-based Bayesian approach, with Optional P\'olya trees as prior distribution. We derive near-optimal convergence rates for corresponding posterior distributions…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-12 Ismaël Castillo , Thibault Randrianarisoa

With recent advances in high throughput technology, researchers often find themselves running a large number of hypothesis tests (thousands+) and esti- mating a large number of effect-sizes. Generally there is particular interest in those…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-11-18 Noah Simon , Richard Simon

Bayesian inference for phylogenetics is a gold standard for computing distributions of phylogenies. It faces the challenging problem of. moving throughout the high-dimensional space of trees. However, hyperbolic space offers a low…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-07-19 Matthew Macaulay , Aaron E. Darling , Mathieu Fourment

We study Bayesian linear regression models with skew-symmetric scale mixtures of normal error distributions. These kinds of models can be used to capture departures from the usual assumption of normality of the errors in terms of heavy…

Applications · Statistics 2016-01-12 Francisco J. Rubio , Marc G. Genton

Let $X_1,\ldots,X_n$ be a random sample from an unknown probability distribution $P$ on the sample space ${\cal X}$, and let $\theta=\theta(P)$ be a parameter of interest. The present paper proposes a nonparametric `Bayesian bootstrap'…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-13 Nils Lid Hjort

As the frontiers of applied statistics progress through increasingly complex experiments we must exploit increasingly sophisticated inferential models to analyze the observations we make. In order to avoid misleading or outright erroneous…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-23 Michael Betancourt

Bayesian predictive probabilities are commonly used for interim monitoring of clinical trials through efficacy and futility stopping rules. Despite their usefulness, calculation of predictive probabilities, particularly in pre-experiment…

Applications · Statistics 2024-06-18 Joe Marion , Liz Lorenzi , Cora Allen-Savietta , Scott Berry , Kert Viele

This perspective chapter briefly surveys: (1) past growth in the use of Bayesian methods in astrophysics; (2) current misconceptions about both frequentist and Bayesian statistical inference that hinder wider adoption of Bayesian methods by…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2016-12-07 Thomas J. Loredo

Inference for functional linear models in the presence of heteroscedastic errors has received insufficient attention given its practical importance; in fact, even a central limit theorem has not been studied in this case. At issue,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-27 Hyemin Yeon , Xiongtao Dai , Daniel John Nordman

We study Bayesian posterior consistency in parametric density models with proper priors, challenging the perception that the problem is settled. Classical results established consistency via MLE convergence under regularity and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-27 Nicola Bariletto , Bernardo Flores , Stephen G. Walker

We propose a novel approach to perform approximate Bayesian inference in complex models such as Bayesian neural networks. The approach is more scalable to large data than Markov Chain Monte Carlo, it embraces more expressive models than…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-07 Joel Janek Dabrowski , Daniel Edward Pagendam

We consider Bayesian model selection in generalized linear models that are high-dimensional, with the number of covariates p being large relative to the sample size n, but sparse in that the number of active covariates is small compared to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-12-26 Rina Foygel , Mathias Drton

This paper tackles the challenge presented by small-data to the task of Bayesian inference. A novel methodology, based on manifold learning and manifold sampling, is proposed for solving this computational statistics problem under the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-29 Christian Soize , Roger Ghanem

Classical statistics and Bayesian statistics refer to the frequentist and subjective theories of probability respectively. Von Mises and De Finetti, who authored those conceptualizations, provide interpretations of the probability that…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-01-24 Paolo Rocchi , Leonida Gianfagna

When combining apparently inconsistent experimental results, one often implements errors on errors. The Particle Data Group's phenomenological prescription offers a practical solution but lacks a firm theoretical foundation. To address…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2025-08-22 Satoshi Mishima , Kin-ya Oda

Considering the flexibility and applicability of Bayesian modeling, in this work we revise the main characteristics of two hierarchical models in a regression setting. We study the full probabilistic structure of the models along with the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-22 Juan Sosa , Jeimy Aristizabal