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Let $(\xi_i,\mathcal{F}_i)_{i\geq1}$ be a sequence of martingale differences. Set $X_n=\sum_{i=1}^n \xi_i $ and $ \langle X \rangle_n=\sum_{i=1}^n \mathbf{E}(\xi_i^2|\mathcal{F}_{i-1}).$ We prove Cram\'er's moderate deviation expansions for…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-04 Xiequan Fan , Qi-Man Shao

A Galton-Watson process in varying environment is a discrete time branching process where the offspring distributions vary among generations. Based on a two-spine decomposition technique, we provide a probabilistic argument of a Yaglom-type…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-10-16 Natalia Cardona-Tobón , Sandra Palau

In this paper, we firstly give a reconstruction for Crump-Mode-Jagers processes with immigration as solutions to a class of stochastic Volterra integral equations, which offers us a new insight for the evolution dynamics of age-dependent…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-22 Wei Xu

By using the conjugate distribution technique of Cram\'er, we obtain some expansions of large deviation probabilities for martingales with differences satisfying the conditional Bernstein's condition. The expansions are of the same order as…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-09-16 Xiequan Fan , Ion Grama , Quansheng Liu

Consider a branching Markov process with values in some general type space. Conditional on survival up to generation $N$, the genealogy of the extant population defines a random marked metric measure space, where individuals are marked by…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-07-12 Félix Foutel-Rodier , Emmanuel Schertzer

We study the precise large deviation probabilities for the sizes of intermediate level sets in branching Brownian motion (BBM). Our conclusions improve a result of A\"{i}dekon, Hu and Shi in [J. Math. Sci. \textbf{238}(2019)]. Additionally,…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-07 Xinxin Chen , Heng Ma

We consider the branching process in random environment $\{Z_n\}_{n\geq 0}$, which is a~population growth process where individuals reproduce independently of each other with the reproduction law randomly picked at each generation. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-30 Dariusz Buraczewski , Piotr Dyszewski

We study a discrete time multitype branching random walk on a finite space with finite set of types. Particles follow a Markov chain on the spatial space whereas offspring distributions are given by a random field that is fixed throughout…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-30 Onur Gün , Wolfgang König , Ozren Sekulović

Under the assumption that the initial population size of a Galton-Watson branching process increases to infinity, the paper studies asymptotic behavior of the population size before extinction. More specifically, we establish asymptotic…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-12-08 Vyacheslav M. Abramov

The first chapter concerns monotype population models. We first study general birth and death processes and we give non-explosion and extinction criteria, moment computations and a pathwise representation. We then show how different scales…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-07-06 Vincent Bansaye , Sylvie Méléard

We study existence of probability measure valued jump-diffusions described by martingale problems. We develop a simple device that allows us to embed Wasserstein spaces and other similar spaces of probability measures into locally compact…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-03 Martin Larsson , Sara Svaluto-Ferro

We investigate some aspects of the problem of the estimation of birth distributions (BD) in multi-type Galton-Watson trees (MGW) with unobserved types. More precisely, we consider two-type MGW called spinal-structured trees. This kind of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-19 Romain Azaïs , Benoît Henry

We consider a spatial multi-type branching model in which individuals migrate in geographic space according to random walks and reproduce according to a state-dependent branching mechanism which can be sub-, super- or critical depending on…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-15 Andreas Greven , Anja Sturm , Anita Winter , Iljana Zähle

We consider a branching random walk on $d$-dimensional real space with immigration in a time-dependent random environment. Let $Z_n(\mathbf t)$ be the so-called partition function of the process, namely, the moment generating function of…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-10-18 Chunmao Huang , Yukun Ren , Runze Li

Motivated by the study of a parasite infection in a cell line, we introduce a general class of Markov processes for the modelling of population dynamics. The population process evolves as a diffusion with positive jumps whose rate is a…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-01 Aline Marguet , Charline Smadi

We investigate a continuous time, probability measure-valued dynamical system that describes the process of mutation-selection balance in a context where the population is infinite, there may be infinitely many loci, and there are weak…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2011-09-20 Steven N. Evans , David Steinsaltz , Kenneth W. Wachter

We consider a population growth model given by a two-type continuous-state branching process with immigration and competition, introduced by Ma. We study the relative frequency of one of the types in the population when the total mass is…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-06-07 Imanol Nuñez , José Luis Pérez

Let $(X_t)_{t \geq 0}$ be a continuous time Markov process on some metric space $M,$ leaving invariant a closed subset $M_0 \subset M,$ called the {\em extinction set}. We give general conditions ensuring either "Stochastic persistence"…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-10-26 Michel Benaim

In numerous papers, the behaviour of stochastic population models is investigated through the sign of a real quantity which is the growth rate of the population near the extinction set. In many cases, it is proven that when this growth rate…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-06 Dang H. Nguyen , Edouard Strickler

Suppose that $X=\{X_t, t\ge 0; \mathbb{P}_{\mu}\}$ is a supercritical superprocess in a locally compact separable metric space $E$. Let $\phi_0$ be a positive eigenfunction corresponding to the first eigenvalue $\lambda_0$ of the generator…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-08-30 Yan-Xia Ren , Renming Song , Rui Zhang