Related papers: Monitoring Procedures to Detect Unit Roots and Sta…
The aim of this paper is to give a simpler, more usable sufficient condition to the regularity of generic weakly stationary time series. Also, this condition is used to show how regular processes satisfying these sufficient conditions can…
Binomial time series in which the logit of the probability of success is modelled as a linear function of observed regressors and a stationary latent Gaussian process are considered. Score tests are developed to first test for the existence…
We consider multivariate copula-based stationary time-series under Gaussian subordination. Observed time series are subordinated to long-range dependent Gaussian processes and characterized by arbitrary marginal copula distributions. First…
In this paper, we study nonparametric models allowing for locally stationary regressors and a regression function that changes smoothly over time. These models are a natural extension of time series models with time-varying coefficients. We…
We study stationarity and moments properties of some count time series models from contraction and stability properties of iterated random maps. Both univariate and multivariate processes are considered, including the recent multivariate…
The forecasting problem for a stationary and ergodic binary time series $\{X_n\}_{n=0}^{\infty}$ is to estimate the probability that $X_{n+1}=1$ based on the observations $X_i$, $0\le i\le n$ without prior knowledge of the distribution of…
In this paper, we develop two families of sequential monitoring procedure to (timely) detect changes in a GARCH(1,1) model. Whilst our methodologies can be applied for the general analysis of changepoints in GARCH(1,1) sequences, they are…
We propose a new sequential procedure to detect change in the parameters of a process $ X= (X_t)_{t\in \Z}$ belonging to a large class of causal models (such as AR($\infty$), ARCH($\infty$), TARCH($\infty$), ARMA-GARCH processes). The…
Change-point processes are one flexible approach to model long time series. We propose a method to uncover which model parameter truly vary when a change-point is detected. Given a set of breakpoints, we use a penalized likelihood approach…
We investigate the online detection of changepoints in the distribution of a sequence of observations using degenerate U-statistic-type processes. We study weighted versions of: an ordinary, CUSUM-type scheme, a Page-CUSUM-type scheme, and…
We propose a new statistical test to identify non-stationary frequency-modulated stochastic processes from time series data. Our method uses the instantaneous phase as a discriminatory statistics with reliable critical values derived from…
This paper proposes a new procedure to build factor models for high-dimensional unit-root time series by postulating that a $p$-dimensional unit-root process is a nonsingular linear transformation of a set of unit-root processes, a set of…
Many organisations manage service quality and monitor a large set devices and servers where each entity is associated with telemetry or physical sensor data series. Recently, various methods have been proposed to detect behavioural…
The forward prediction problem for a binary time series $\{X_n\}_{n=0}^{\infty}$ is to estimate the probability that $X_{n+1}=1$ based on the observations $X_i$, $0\le i\le n$ without prior knowledge of the distribution of the process…
In this paper, we present a change point detection method for detecting change points in multivariate nonstationary wind speed time series. The change point method identifies changes in the covariance structure and decomposes the…
This article introduces a novel Bayesian method for asynchronous change-point detection in multivariate time series. This method allows for change-points to occur earlier in some (leading) series followed, after a short delay, by…
Change-points in time series data are usually defined as the time instants at which changes in their properties occur. Detecting change-points is critical in a number of applications as diverse as detecting credit card and insurance frauds,…
From a sequence of similarity networks, with edges representing certain similarity measures between nodes, we are interested in detecting a change-point which changes the statistical property of the networks. After the change, a subset of…
We study the problem of coincidence detection in time series data, where we aim to determine whether the appearance of simultaneous or near-simultaneous events in two time series is indicative of some shared underlying signal or…
We propose novel methods for change-point testing for nonparametric estimators of expected shortfall and related risk measures in weakly dependent time series. We can detect general multiple structural changes in the tails of marginal…