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In this note we prove bounds on the upper and lower probability tails of sums of independent geometric or exponentially distributed random variables. We also prove negative results showing that our established tail bounds are asymptotically…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-02-11 Yaonan Jin , Yingkai Li , Yining Wang , Yuan Zhou

The ratio $P(S_n=x)/P(Z_n=x)$ is investigated for three cases: (a) when $S_n$ is a sum of 1-dependent non-negative integer-valued random variables (rvs), satisfying some moment conditions, and $Z_n$ is Poisson rv; (b) when $S_n$ is a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-14 Vydas Čekanavičius , Palaniappan Vellaisamy

Let $\xi_1, \xi_2,\ldots$ be a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables with zero mean, finite second moment and regularly varying right distribution tail. Motivated by a stop-loss insurance model, we consider a…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-05 Aaron Chong , Konstantin Borovkov

Two old conjectures from problem sections, one of which from SIAM Review, concern the question of finding distributions that maximize P(Sn <= t), where Sn is the sum of i.i.d. random variables X1, ..., Xn on the interval [0,1], satisfying…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-08-13 Ludolf E. Meester

We obtain large deviations theorems for nonconventional sums with underlying process being a Markov process satisfying the Doeblin condition or a dynamical system such as subshift of finite type or hyperbolic or expanding transformation.

Probability · Mathematics 2013-02-21 Yuri Kifer , S. R. S. Varadhan

We propose an approach to compute the conditional moments of fat-tailed phenomena that, only looking at data, could be mistakenly considered as having infinite mean. This type of problems manifests itself when a random variable Y has a…

Applications · Statistics 2018-08-02 Nassim Nicholas Taleb , Pasquale Cirillo

Empirical distributions have their in-sample maxima as natural censoring. We look at the "hidden tail", that is, the part of the distribution in excess of the maximum for a sample size of $n$. Using extreme value theory, we examine the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-04-14 Nassim Nicholas Taleb

In this note, we establish the convergence in distribution of the maxima of i.i.d. random variables to the Gumbel distribution with the associated normalizing sequences for several examples that are related to the normal distribution.…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-03-29 Markus Bibinger

Stretched exponential probability density functions (pdf), having the form of the exponential of minus a fractional power of the argument, are commonly found in turbulence and other areas. They can arise because of an underlying random…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-30 U. Frisch , D. Sornette

Let $\{\xi_1,\xi_2,\ldots\}$ be a sequence of independent random variables, and $\eta$ be a counting random variable independent of this sequence. We consider conditions for $\{\xi_1,\xi_2,\ldots\}$ and $\eta$ under which the distribution…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-14 Edita Kizinevič , Jonas Sprindys , Jonas Šiaulys

This paper investigates the decay rate of the probability that the row sum of a triangular array of truncated heavy tailed random variables is larger than an integer (k) times the truncating threshold, as both - the number of summands and…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-03-21 Arijit Chakrabarty

For a risk vector $V$, whose components are shared among agents by some random mechanism, we obtain asymptotic lower and upper bounds for the individual agents' exposure risk and the aggregated risk in the market. Risk is measured by…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-04-12 Oliver Kley , Claudia Kluppelberg

In this paper, we analyze the set of all possible aggregate distributions of the sum of standard uniform random variables, a simply stated yet challenging problem in the literature of distributions with given margins. Our main results are…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-10-02 Tiantian Mao , Bin Wang , Ruodu Wang

The multivariate version of the Mixed Tempered Stable is proposed. It is a generalization of the Normal Variance Mean Mixtures. Characteristics of this new distribution and its capacity in fitting tails and capturing dependence structure…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-10-04 Asmerilda Hitaj , Friedrich Hubalek , Lorenzo Mercuri , Edit Rroji

We study the full distribution $P_{N}\left(A\right)$ of sums $A = \sum_{i=1}^N$ where $x_1, \dots, x_N$ are $N \gg 1$ independent and identically distributed random variables each sampled from a given distribution $p(x)$ with a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-07-09 Naftali R. Smith

Inhomogeneous random graphs are fundamental models for real-world networks, where prescribed degrees are imposed as soft constraints. A common assumption in such models is that the degree distribution follows a power-law, capturing the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-09 Riccardo Michielan , Clara Stegehuis , Bert Zwart

We consider the model of hashing with linear probing and we establish the moderate and large deviations for the total displacement in sparse tables. In this context, Weibull-like-tailed random variables appear. Deviations for sums of such…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-12-16 Thierry Klein , A Lagnoux , P Petit

Considered a pair of random lifetimes whose dependence is described by a Time Transformed Exponential model, we provide analytical expressions for the distribution of their sum. These expressions are obtained by using a representation of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-12-13 Jorge Navarro , Franco Pellerey , Julio Mulero

We formulate the statistics of the discrete multicomponent fragmentation event using a methodology borrowed from statistical mechanics. We generate the ensemble of all feasible distributions that can be formed when a single integer…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-07-03 Themis Matsoukas

We study large partial sums, localized with respect to the sums of variances, of a sequence of centered random variables. An application is given to the distribution of prime factors of typical integers.

Probability · Mathematics 2007-11-21 Kevin Ford , Gerald Tenenbaum