Related papers: A Maximal Inequality for Supermartingales

Let $X$ be the unique normal martingale such that $X_0=0$ and \[\mathrm{d}[X]_t=(1-t-X_{t-}) \mathrm{d}X_t+\mathrm{d}t\] and let $Y_t:=X_t+t$ for all $t\geq 0$; the semimartingale $Y$ arises in quantum probability, where it is the…

This paper introduces a martingale that characterizes two properties of evolving forecast distributions. Ideal forecasts of a future event behave as martingales, sequen- tially updating the forecast to leverage the available information as…

We study the almost-sure termination problem for probabilistic programs. First, we show that supermartingales with lower bounds on conditional absolute difference provide a sound approach for the almost-sure termination problem. Moreover,…

We introduce a method for proving almost sure termination in the context of lambda calculus with continuous random sampling and explicit recursion, based on ranking supermartingales. This result is extended in three ways. Antitone ranking…

Given a random sample from a random variable $T$ which is bounded from above, $T\le\tau$ a.s., we define processes that are positive supermartingales if $E(T)\ge\mu$. Such processes are called test martingales. Tests of the supermartingale…

We consider the problem of maximising expected utility from terminal wealth in a semimartingale setting, where the semimartingale is written as a sum of a time-changed Brownian motion and a finite variation process. To solve this problem,…

For a sequence $\{X_{n}, \, n \geqslant 1 \}$ of random variables satisfying $\mathbb{E} \lvert X_{n} \rvert < \infty$ for all $n \geqslant 1$, a maximal inequality is established, and used to obtain strong law of large numbers for…

In this paper, we compute the tightest possible bounds on the probability that the optimal value of a combinatorial optimization problem in maximization form with a random objective exceeds a given number, assuming only knowledge of the…

Essentially all anytime-valid methods hinge on Ville's inequality to gain validity across time without incurring a union bound. Ville's inequality is a proper generalisation of Markov's inequality. It states that a non-negative…

We obtain bounds on the distribution of the maximum of a martingale with fixed marginals at finitely many intermediate times. The bounds are sharp and attained by a solution to $n$-marginal Skorokhod embedding problem in Ob{\l}\'oj and…

We develop a martingale approximation framework yielding quantitative maximal large deviations estimates for invertible dynamical systems. From suitable decay of correlations, we deduce these estimates and, as an application, we obtain…

We consider a change of measure by a martingale $Z_t$ and clarify that in general $1/Z_t$ is only a supermartingale under the changed measure. We then give a necessary and sufficient condition for the event that the limit of the martingale…

Let (S_0,S_1,...) be a supermartingale relative to a nondecreasing sequence of \sigma-algebras (H_{\le0},H_{\le1},...), with S_0\le0 almost surely (a.s.) and differences X_i:=S_i-S_{i-1}. Suppose that for every i=1,2,... there exist…

We show that the maximizing point and the supremum of the standardized uniform empirical process converge in distribution. Here, the limit variable (Z, Y ) has independent components. Moreover, Z attains the values zero and one with equal…

In the paper we study sharp maximal inequalities for martingales and non-negative submartingales: if $f$, $g$ are martingales satisfying \[|\mathrm{d}g_n|\leq|\mathrm{d}f_n|,\qquad n=0,1,2,...,\] almost surely, then…

Let $X$ be a random variable distributed according to the binomial distribution with parameters $n$ and $p$. It is shown that $P(X>EX)\ge1/4$ if $1>p\ge c/n$, where $c:=\ln(4/3)$, the best possible constant factor.

Let $(X_i, \mathcal{F}_i)_{i\geq1}$ be a martingale difference sequence in a smooth Banach space. Let $S_n=\sum_{i=1}^nX_i, n\geq 1,$ be the partial sums of $(X_i, \mathcal{F}_i)_{i\geq 1}$. We give upper bounds on the quantity…

This note presents a result on the maximal prime gap of the form p_(n+1) - p_n <= C(log p_n)^(1+e), where C > 0 is a constant, for any arbitrarily small real number e > 0, and all sufficiently large integer n > n_0. Equivalently, the result…

Let $f$ be a Rademacher or a Steinhaus random multiplicative function. Let $\varepsilon>0$ small. We prove that, as $x\rightarrow +\infty$, we almost surely have $$\bigg|\sum_{\substack{n\leq x\\…

Consider a discrete-time martingale, and let $V^2$ be its normalized quadratic variation. As $V^2$ approaches 1, and provided that some Lindeberg condition is satisfied, the distribution of the rescaled martingale approaches the Gaussian…