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Exploratory analysis of time series data can yield a better understanding of complex dynamical systems. Granger causality is a practical framework for analysing interactions in sequential data, applied in a wide range of domains. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-20 Ričards Marcinkevičs , Julia E. Vogt

Granger causality is a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression. For Gaussian variables it is equivalent to transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2021-02-17 Sebastiano Stramaglia , Tomas Scagliarini , Yuri Antonacci , Luca Faes

Important information on the structure of complex systems, consisting of more than one component, can be obtained by measuring to which extent the individual components exchange information among each other. Such knowledge is needed to…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-11-13 Daniele Marinazzo , Mario Pellicoro , Sebastiano Stramaglia

We introduce a rigorous mathematical framework for Granger causality in extremes, designed to identify causal links from extreme events in time series. Granger causality plays a pivotal role in uncovering directional relationships among…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-21 Juraj Bodik , Olivier C. Pasche

Extracting causal connections can advance interpretable AI and machine learning. Granger causality (GC) is a robust statistical method for estimating directed influences (DC) between signals. While GC has been widely applied to analysing…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2024-08-06 Abdoreza Asadpour , KongFatt Wong-Lin

Characterising cause-effect relationships in complex systems is fundamental to understanding their underlying mechanisms. Granger causality (GC) remains a widely used computational tool for identifying causal relationships in time series…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-26 S. A. Adedayo

We study the problem of learning Granger causality between event types from asynchronous, interdependent, multi-type event sequences. Existing work suffers from either limited model flexibility or poor model explainability and thus fails to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-20 Wei Zhang , Thomas Kobber Panum , Somesh Jha , Prasad Chalasani , David Page

Granger causality is well established within the neurosciences for inference of directed functional connectivity from neurophysiological data. These data usually consist of time series which subsample a continuous-time biophysiological…

Applications · Statistics 2016-09-08 Lionel Barnett , Anil K. Seth

Granger causality (GC), a popular statistical method for the inference of directional influences between time series measured from a complex network, is sensitive to high-order (non-pairwise) interactions which fundamentally shape the…

Granger causality, commonly used for inferring causal structures from time series data, has been adopted in widespread applications across various fields due to its intuitive explainability and high compatibility with emerging deep neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-18 Ziyi Zhang , Shaogang Ren , Xiaoning Qian , Nick Duffield

Neural processes in the brain operate at a range of temporal scales. Granger causality, the most widely-used neuroscientific tool for inference of directed functional connectivity from neurophsyiological data, is traditionally deployed in…

Applications · Statistics 2019-07-17 Lionel Barnett , Anil K. Seth

Granger causality and variants of this concept allow the study of complex dynamical systems as networks constructed from multivariate time series. In this work, a large number of Granger causality measures used to form causality networks…

Computation · Statistics 2020-01-08 Elsa Siggiridou , Christos Koutlis , Alkiviadis Tsimpiris , Dimitris Kugiumtzis

Dependence between nodes in a network is an important concept that pervades many areas including finance, politics, sociology, genomics and the brain sciences. One way to characterize dependence between components of a multivariate time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-08 Malik Shahid Sultan , Samuel Horvath , Hernando Ombao

Most of the metrics used for detecting a causal relationship among multiple time series ignore the effects of practical measurement impairments, such as finite sample effects, undersampling and measurement noise. It has been shown that…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-03 Rahul Devendra , Ribhu Chopra , Kumar Appaiah

When a dynamical system can be modeled as a sequence of observations, Granger causality is a powerful approach for detecting predictive interactions between its variables. However, traditional Granger causal inference has limited utility in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-20 Rohit Singh , Alexander P. Wu , Bonnie Berger

Granger causality (GC) is undoubtedly the most widely used method to infer cause-effect relations from observational time series. Several nonlinear alternatives to GC have been proposed based on kernel methods. We generalize kernel Granger…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2020-12-10 Diego Bueso , Maria Piles , Gustau Camps-Valls

Granger-causality in the frequency domain is an emerging tool to analyze the causal relationship between two time series. We propose a bootstrap test on unconditional and conditional Granger-causality spectra, as well as on their…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-04-07 Matteo Farné , Angela Montanari

The problem of estimating high-dimensional network models arises naturally in the analysis of many physical, biological and socio-economic systems. Examples include stock price fluctuations in financial markets and gene regulatory networks…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-10-09 Sumanta Basu , Ali Shojaie , George Michailidis

Identifying causality behind complex systems plays a significant role in different domains, such as decision making, policy implementations, and management recommendations. However, existing causality studies on temporal event sequences…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Sujia Zhu , Yue Shen , Zihao Zhu , Wang Xia , Baofeng Chang , Ronghua Liang , Guodao Sun

Physicists are starting to work in areas where noisy signal analysis is required. In these fields, such as Economics, Neuroscience, and Physics, the notion of causality should be interpreted as a statistical measure. We introduce to the lay…