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This article is concerned with the mathematical analysis of a family of adaptive importance sampling algorithms applied to diffusion processes. These methods, referred to as Adaptive Biasing Potential methods, are designed to efficiently…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-10 Michel Benaïm , Charles-Edouard Bréhier

We discuss several algorithms for sampling from unnormalized probability distributions in statistical physics, but using the language of statistics and machine learning. We provide a self-contained introduction to some key ideas and…

Computation · Statistics 2025-05-05 Michael F. Faulkner , Samuel Livingstone

Denoising diffusion models are a popular class of generative models providing state-of-the-art results in many domains. One adds gradually noise to data using a diffusion to transform the data distribution into a Gaussian distribution.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-21 Francisco Vargas , Will Grathwohl , Arnaud Doucet

We present a novel simulation-free framework for training continuous-time diffusion processes over very general objective functions. Existing methods typically involve either prescribing the optimal diffusion process -- which only works for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-24 Mengjian Hua , Eric Vanden-Eijnden , Ricky T. Q. Chen

Nested sampling is a simulation method for approximating marginal likelihoods proposed by Skilling (2006). We establish that nested sampling has an approximation error that vanishes at the standard Monte Carlo rate and that this error is…

Computation · Statistics 2010-10-11 Nicolas Chopin , Christian Robert

A recently introduced Importance Sampling strategy based on a least squares optimization is applied to the Monte Carlo simulation of Libor Market Models. Such Least Squares Importance Sampling (LSIS) allows the automatic optimization of the…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-02 Luca Capriotti

We propose a method for estimating first passage time densities of one-dimensional diffusions via Monte Carlo simulation. Our approach involves a representation of the first passage time density as expectation of a functional of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-08-10 Tomoyuki Ichiba , Constantinos Kardaras

Recently Whitaker et al. (2017) considered Bayesian estimation of diffusion driven mixed effects models using data-augmentation. The missing data, diffusion bridges connecting discrete time observations, are drawn using a "residual bridge…

Computation · Statistics 2017-08-17 Frank van der Meulen , Moritz Schauer

We propose an adaptive importance sampling scheme for the simulation of rare events when the underlying dynamics is given by a diffusion. The scheme is based on a Gibbs variational principle that is used to determine the optimal (i.e.…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-24 Carsten Hartmann , Omar Kebiri , Lara Neureither , Lorenz Richter

Stochastic processes of bridge types having pinned initial and terminal conditions have been widely used in applied research areas, but they all have a common drawback in that the model at hand is possibly misspecified owing to its…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-09 Hidekazu Yoshioka

We study generative modeling for time series using entropic optimal transport and the Schr\"odinger bridge (SB) framework, with a focus on applications in finance and energy modeling. Extending the diffusion-based approach of Hamdouche,…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-02-24 Stefano De Marco , Huyên Pham , Davide Zanni

We introduce a path sampling method for the computation of rate constants for systems with a highly diffusive character. Based on the recently developed algorithm of transition interface sampling (TIS) this procedure increases the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 Daniele Moroni , Peter G. Bolhuis , Titus S. van Erp

This paper concerns the first passage times of Bessel processes to a point on the positive real line. We are interested in the case when the process starts at a position on its right and compute the densities of the distributions of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-02-17 Kohei Uchiyama

Diffusion models have been successful on a range of conditional generation tasks including molecular design and text-to-image generation. However, these achievements have primarily depended on task-specific conditional training or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-26 Luhuan Wu , Brian L. Trippe , Christian A. Naesseth , David M. Blei , John P. Cunningham

iffusion-based generative models increasingly rely on inference-time guidance, adding a drift term or reweighting mixture of experts, to improve sample quality on task-specific objectives. However, most existing techniques require repeated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-19 Chenyang Wang , Weizhong Wang , Yinuo Ren , Jose Blanchet , Yiping Lu

We analyse how the sampling dynamics of distributions evolve in score-based diffusion models using cross-fluctuations, a centered-moment statistic from statistical physics. Specifically, we show that starting from an unbiased isotropic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-04 Sai Niranjan Ramachandran , Manish Krishan Lal , Suvrit Sra

A central task in many applications is reasoning about processes that change over continuous time. Continuous-Time Bayesian Networks is a general compact representation language for multi-component continuous-time processes. However, exact…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-06-18 Tal El-Hay , Nir Friedman , Raz Kupferman

A novel approach called Moate Simulation is presented to provide an accurate numerical evolution of probability distribution functions represented on grids arising from stochastic differential processes where initial conditions are…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-12-19 Michael E. Mura

Denoising diffusion bridge models (DDBMs) are a powerful variant of diffusion models for interpolating between two arbitrary paired distributions given as endpoints. Despite their promising performance in tasks like image translation, DDBMs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-01 Kaiwen Zheng , Guande He , Jianfei Chen , Fan Bao , Jun Zhu

In this paper, we establish a relationship between the asymptotic form of conditional boundary crossing probabilities and first passage time densities for diffusion processes. Namely, we show that, under broad assumptions, the first…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-11-18 Konstantin A. Borovkov , Andrew N. Downes
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