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In this paper we introduce non-decreasing jump processes with independent and time non-homogeneous increments. Although they are not L\'evy processes, they somehow generalize subordinators in the sense that their Laplace exponents are…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-10 Enzo Orsingher , Costantino Ricciuti , Bruno Toaldo

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes with a wide range of applications in both natural and social sciences. Despite their widespread use, inference in these models is highly non-trivial and typically proceeds via…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-01 Patrick Seifner , Ramses J. Sanchez

We study self-duality for interacting particle systems, where the particles move as continuous time random walkers having either exclusion interaction or inclusion interaction. We show that orthogonal self-dualities arise from unitary…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-15 Gioia Carinci , Chiara Franceschini , Cristian Giardinà , Wolter Groenevelt , Frank Redig

This paper proposes nonparametric two-sample tests for the direct comparison of the probabilities of a particular transition between states of a continuous time nonhomogeneous Markov process with a finite state space. The proposed tests are…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-24 Giorgos Bakoyannis

A discrete-time Markov chain can be transformed into a new Markov chain by looking at its states along iterations of an almost surely finite stopping time. By the optional stopping theorem, any bounded harmonic function with respect to the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-05-04 Iddo Ben-Ari , Behrang Forghani

We study nonlinear time-inhomogeneous Markov processes in the sense of McKean's seminal work [32]. These are given as families of laws $\mathbb{P}_{s,\zeta}$, $s\geq 0$, on path space, where $\zeta$ runs through a set of admissible initial…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-21 Marco Rehmeier , Michael Röckner

The space-fractional and the time-fractional Poisson processes are two well-known models of fractional evolution. They can be constructed as standard Poisson processes with the time variable replaced by a stable subordinator and its…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-09 Luisa Beghin , Costantino Ricciuti

The literature on Bayesian methods for the analysis of discrete-time semi-Markov processes is sparse. In this paper, we introduce the semi-Markov beta-Stacy process, a stochastic process useful for the Bayesian non-parametric analysis of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-24 Andrea Arfè , Stefano Peluso , Pietro Muliere

In this paper, we consider semi-Markov processes whose transition times and transition probabilities depend on a small parameter $\varepsilon$. Understanding the asymptotic behavior of such processes is needed in order to study the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-11-08 Leonid Koralov , Ishfaaq Mohammed Imtiyas

We introduce a simple approach for testing the reliability of homogeneous generators and the Markov property of the stochastic processes underlying empirical time series of credit ratings. We analyze open access data provided by Moody's and…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2014-10-30 Pedro Lencastre , Frank Raischel , Pedro G. Lind , Tim Rogers

We consider random walks on marked simple point processes with symmetric jump rates and unbounded jump range. We prove homogenization properties of the associated Markov generators. As an application, we derive the hydrodynamic limit of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-17 A. Faggionato

We study the random acceleration model, which is perhaps one of the simplest, yet nontrivial, non-Markov stochastic processes, and is key to many applications. For this non-Markov process, we present exact analytical results for the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-09-04 Satya N. Majumdar , Alberto Rosso , Andrea Zoia

Consider a branching Markov process, $X = (X(t), t \ge 0)$, with non-local branching mechanism. Studying the asymptotic behaviour of the moments of X has recently received attention in the literature [6, 7] due to the importance of these…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-03 Christopher B. C. Dean , Emma Horton

We develop a new family of marked point processes by focusing the characteristic properties of marked Hawkes processes exclusively to the space of marks, providing the freedom to specify a different model for the occurrence times. This is…

Applications · Statistics 2022-10-18 Santhosh Narayanan , Ioannis Kosmidis , Petros Dellaportas

It is proven that the eigenvalue process of Dyson's random matrix process of size two becomes non-Markov if the common coefficient $1/\sqrt{2}$ in the non-diagonal entries is replaced by a different positive number.

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-27 Ryoki Fukushima , Atsushi Tanida , Kouji Yano

The Hawkes process is a simple point process that has long memory, clustering effect, self-exciting property and is in general non-Markovian. The future evolution of a self-exciting point process is influenced by the timing of the past…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-06-25 Lingjiong Zhu

We have shown recently that a Markov process conditioned on rare events involving time-integrated random variables can be described in the long-time limit by an effective Markov process, called the driven process, which is given…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-12-17 Raphael Chetrite , Hugo Touchette

The paper studies a class of critical Markov branching processes with infinite variance of the offspring distribution. The processes admit also an immigration component at the jump-points of a non-homogeneous Poisson process, assuming that…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-08 Kosto V. Mitov , Nikolay M. Yanev

This paper is devoted to the study of a stochastic process obtained by random switching between a finite collection of vector fields. Such processes have recently been the focus of much attention in the case where the switching times are…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-01 Tobias Hurth , Edouard Strickler

We provide a probabilistic analysis of the banker algorithm when transition probabilities may depend on time and space. The transition probabilities evolve, as time goes by, along the trajectory of an ergodic Markovian environment, whereas…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Francis Comets , Francois Delarue , Rene Schott
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