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This paper consider penalized empirical loss minimization of convex loss functions with unknown non-linear target functions. Using the elastic net penalty we establish a finite sample oracle inequality which bounds the loss of our estimator…

We consider the problem of estimating the expected value of information (the knowledge gradient) for Bayesian learning problems where the belief model is nonlinear in the parameters. Our goal is to maximize some metric, while simultaneously…

This paper discusses the problem of estimating a stochastic signal from nonlinear uncertain observations with time-correlated additive noise described by a first-order Markov process. Random deception attacks are assumed to be launched by…

We develop a continuous-time penalized regression framework for the estimation of time-varying coefficients and variable selection when both the response and covariates are It\^o semimartingales with jumps. The coefficient paths are…

In the nonparametric regression setting, we construct an estimator which is a continuous function interpolating the data points with high probability, while attaining minimax optimal rates under mean squared risk on the scale of H\"older…

We propose a general framework for studying adaptive regret bounds in the online learning framework, including model selection bounds and data-dependent bounds. Given a data- or model-dependent bound we ask, "Does there exist some algorithm…

We present a novel $Q$-learning algorithm tailored to solve distributionally robust Markov decision problems where the corresponding ambiguity set of transition probabilities for the underlying Markov decision process is a Wasserstein ball…

We study the problem of model selection type aggregation with respect to the Kullback-Leibler divergence for various probabilistic models. Rather than considering a convex combination of the initial estimators $f_1, \ldots, f_N$, our…

Network experiments are powerful tools for studying spillover effects, which avoid endogeneity by randomly assigning treatments to units over networks. However, it is non-trivial to analyze network experiments properly without imposing…

In this work, we study the problem of aggregating a finite number of predictors for nonstationary sub-linear processes. We provide oracle inequalities relying essentially on three ingredients: (1) a uniform bound of the $\ell^1$ norm of the…

We study a variable length Markov chain model associated with a group of stationary processes that share the same context tree but each process has potentially different conditional probabilities. We propose a new model selection and…

A framework is introduced for actively and adaptively solving a sequence of machine learning problems, which are changing in bounded manner from one time step to the next. An algorithm is developed that actively queries the labels of the…

In most machine learning applications, classification accuracy is not the primary metric of interest. Binary classifiers which face class imbalance are often evaluated by the $F_\beta$ score, area under the precision-recall curve, Precision…

Inverse probability weighted estimators are the oldest and potentially most commonly used class of procedures for the estimation of causal effects. By adjusting for selection biases via a weighting mechanism, these procedures estimate an…

Local projections (LP) and vector autoregressions (VAR) are the two standard tools for impulse response analysis, but they often display a finite-sample trade-off: LP is typically less biased but more volatile, while VAR is more precise but…

An adaptive nonparametric estimation procedure is constructed for the estimation problem of heteroscedastic regression when the noise variance depends on the unknown regression. A non-asymptotic upper bound for a quadratic risk (an oracle…

We consider the problem of model selection and estimation in situations where the number of parameters diverges with the sample size. When the dimension is high, an ideal method should have the oracle property [J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 96…

We consider a linear model where the coefficients - intercept and slopes - are random with a law in a nonparametric class and independent from the regressors. Identification often requires the regressors to have a support which is the whole…

This paper studies theory and inference of an observation-driven model for time series of counts. It is assumed that the observations follow a Poisson distribution conditioned on an accompanying intensity process, which is equipped with a…

Despite increasing popularity in empirical studies, the integration of machine learning generated variables into regression models for statistical inference suffers from the measurement error problem, which can bias estimation and threaten…