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Related papers: Exchangeable lower previsions

200 papers

We review old and new uses of exchangeability, emphasizing the general theme of exchangeable representations of complex random structures. Illustrations of this theme include processes of stochastic coalescence and fragmentation; continuum…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-02-22 David J. Aldous

The topic of this paper is the subtle interplay between countability and representations. In particular, we establish that the definition of countability of a certain set $X$ crucially hinges on the associated equivalence relation $=_{X}$.…

Logic · Mathematics 2026-02-09 Sam Sanders

Exchangeability -- in which the distribution of an infinite sequence is invariant to reorderings of its elements -- implies the existence of a simple conditional independence structure that may be leveraged in the design of statistical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-25 Trevor Campbell , Saifuddin Syed , Chiao-Yu Yang , Michael I. Jordan , Tamara Broderick

A new finite form of de Finetti's representation theorem is established using elementary information-theoretic tools. The distribution of the first $k$ random variables in an exchangeable vector of $n\geq k$ random variables is close to a…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-04-29 Mario Berta , Lampros Gavalakis , Ioannis Kontoyiannis

Let $\Om$ be a Borel subset of $S^\Bbb N$ where $S$ is countable. A measure is called exchangeable on $\Om$, if it is supported on $\Om$ and is invariant under every Borel automorphism of $\Om$ which permutes at most finitely many…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-06-26 J. Aaronson , H. Nakada , O. Sarig

We establish a one-to-one correspondence between (i) exchangeable sequences of random variables whose finite-dimensional distributions are minimum (or maximum) infinitely divisible and (ii) non-negative, non-decreasing, infinitely divisible…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-21 Florian Brück , Jan-Frederik Mai , Matthias Scherer

Partially exchangeable sequences representable as mixtures of Markov chains are completely specified by de Finetti's mixing measure. The paper characterizes, in terms of a subclass of hidden Markov models, the partially exchangeable…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-04 Cecilia Prosdocimi , Lorenzo Finesso

We present a novel proof of de Finetti's Theorem characterizing permutation-invariant probability measures of infinite sequences of variables, so-called exchangeable measures. The proof is phrased in the language of Markov categories, which…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-11-08 Tobias Fritz , Tomáš Gonda , Paolo Perrone

We develop a framework for the operationalization of models and parameters by combining de Finetti's representation theorem with a conditional form of Sanov's theorem. This synthesis, the tilted de Finetti theorem, shows that conditioning…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-17 Nicholas G. Polson , Daniel Zantedeschi

For a class of random partitions of an infinite set a de Finetti-type representation is derived, and in one special case a central limit theorem for the number of blocks is shown.

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Alexander Gnedin

We give a nonstandard analytic proof of de Finetti's theorem for an exchangeable sequence of Bernoulli random variables. The theorem postulates that such a sequence is uniquely representable as a mixture of iid sequences of Bernoulli random…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-17 Irfan Alam

A classic and fundamental result about the decomposition of random sequences into a mixture of simpler ones is de Finetti's Theorem. In its original form it applies to infinite 0-1 valued exchangeable sequences. Later it was extended and…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-11-16 Andras Farago

We give an extension of de Finetti's concept of coherence to unbounded (but real-valued) random variables that allows for gambling in the presence of infinite previsions. We present a finitely additive extension of the Daniell integral to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-09-02 Mark J. Schervish , Teddy Seidenfeld , Joseph B. Kadane

Randomness (in the sense of being generated in an IID fashion) and exchangeability are standard assumptions in nonparametric statistics and machine learning, and relations between them have been a popular topic of research. This short paper…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-21 Vladimir Vovk

We study Hoeffding decomposable exchangeable sequences with values in a finite set D. We provide a new combinatorial characterization of Hoeffding decomposability and use this result to show that, if the cardinality of D is strictly greater…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-05-24 Omar El-Dakkak , Giovanni Peccati , Igor Prünster

We consider random arrays indexed by the leaves of an infinitary rooted tree of finite depth, with the distribution invariant under the rearrangements that preserve the tree structure. We call such arrays hierarchically exchangeable and…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-08-05 Tim Austin , Dmitry Panchenko

Many economic theory models incorporate finiteness assumptions that, while introduced for simplicity, play a real role in the analysis. We provide a principled framework for scaling results from such models by removing these finiteness…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Yannai A. Gonczarowski , Scott Duke Kominers , Ran I. Shorrer

A relationally exchangeable structure is a random combinatorial structure whose law is invariant with respect to relabeling its relations, as opposed to its elements. Aside from exchangeable random partitions, examples include edge…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-22 Harry Crane , Walter Dempsey

Predictive constructions are a powerful way of characterizing the probability law of stochastic processes with certain forms of invariance, such as exchangeability or Markov exchangeability. When de Finetti-like representation theorems are…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-11-16 Sandra Fortini , Sonia Petrone

We extend conformal prediction methodology beyond the case of exchangeable data. In particular, we show that a weighted version of conformal prediction can be used to compute distribution-free prediction intervals for problems in which the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-08 Ryan J. Tibshirani , Rina Foygel Barber , Emmanuel J. Candes , Aaditya Ramdas