Related papers: Exchangeable lower previsions
Multiple types of inference are available for probabilistic graphical models, e.g., marginal, maximum-a-posteriori, and even marginal maximum-a-posteriori. Which one do researchers mean when they talk about "planning as inference"? There is…
Analysis of multivariate data sets from e.g. microarray studies frequently results in lists of genes which are associated with some response of interest. The biological interpretation is often complicated by the statistical instability of…
We study how to infer new choices from previous choices in a conservative manner. To make such inferences, we use the theory of choice functions: a unifying mathematical framework for conservative decision making that allows one to impose…
A wide variety of model explanation approaches have been proposed in recent years, all guided by very different rationales and heuristics. In this paper, we take a new route and cast interpretability as a statistical inference problem. We…
Modeling dependencies among features is fundamental for many machine learning tasks. Although there are often multiple related instances that may be leveraged to inform conditional dependencies, typical approaches only model conditional…
We study stochastic team (known also as decentralized stochastic control or identical interest stochastic dynamic game) problems with large or countably infinite number of decision makers, and characterize existence and structural…
The aim of this paper is to present an elementary computable theory of random variables, based on the approach to probability via valuations. The theory is based on a type of lower-measurable sets, which are controlled limits of open sets,…
The main object of Bayesian statistical inference is the determination of posterior distributions. Sometimes these laws are given for quantities devoid of empirical value. This serious drawback vanishes when one confines oneself to…
The paper studies the notion of supposition encoded in non-Archimedean conditional probability (and revealed in the acceptance of the so-called indicative conditionals). The notion of qualitative change of view that thus arises is…
By operations on models we show how to relate completeness with respect to permissive-nominal models to completeness with respect to nominal models with finite support. Models with finite support are a special case of permissive-nominal…
We consider a notion of uniform thinning for a finite sequence of random variables $(X_1,...,X_n)$ obtained by removing one random variable, uniformly at random. If a triangular array of random variables $(X_{n,k} : n \in \mathbb{N}_+, 1…
All known structural extensions of the substructural logic $\mathsf{FL_e}$, Full Lambek calculus with exchange/commutativity, (corresponding to subvarieties of commutative residuated lattices axiomatized by $\{\vee, \cdot, 1\}$-equations)…
Lurie's representability theorem gives necessary and sufficient conditions for a functor to be an almost finitely presented derived geometric stack. We establish several variants of Lurie's theorem, making the hypotheses easier to verify…
We develop a theory of estimation when in addition to a sample of $n$ observed outcomes the underlying probabilities of the observed outcomes are known, as is typically the case in the context of numerical simulation modeling, e.g. in…
We develop a representation of a decision maker's uncertainty based on e-variables. Like the Bayesian posterior, this *e-posterior* allows for making predictions against arbitrary loss functions that may not be specified ex ante. Unlike the…
We give a new proof of a theorem of Mints that the positive fragment of minimal predicate logic is decidable. The idea of the proof is to replace the eigenvariable condition of sequent calculus by an appropriate scoping mechanism. The…
We continue investigating the structure of externally definable sets in NIP theories and preservation of NIP after expanding by new predicates. Most importantly: types over finite sets are uniformly definable; over a model, a family of…
We derive new bounds of the remainder in a combinatorial central limit theorem without assumptions on independence and existence of moments of summands. For independent random variables our theorems imply Esseen and Berry-Esseen type…
We study systematically groups whose marked finite quotients form a recursive set. We give several definitions, and prove basic properties of this class of groups, and in particular emphasize the link between the growth of the depth…
This paper suggests a new interpretation of the Dempster-Shafer theory in terms of probabilistic interpretation of plausibility. A new rule of combination of independent evidence is shown and its preservation of interpretation is…