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We review the close link between intermittent events ('quakes') and extremal noise fluctuations which has been advocated in recent numerical and theoretical work. From the idea that record-breaking noise fluctuations trigger the quakes, an…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-11-11 Paolo Sibani

In this paper, we consider the distribution of the supremum of non-stationary Gaussian processes, and present a new theoretical result on the asymptotic behaviour of this distribution. Unlike previously known facts in this field, our main…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-05-25 Valentin Konakov , Vladimir Panov , Vladimir Piterbarg

The aim of this paper is to provide models for spatial extremes in the case of stationarity. The spatial dependence at extreme levels of a stationary process is modeled using an extension of the theory of max-stable processes of de Haan and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Laurens de Haan , Teresa T. Pereira

Existing theory for multivariate extreme values focuses upon characterizations of the distributional tails when all components of a random vector, standardized to identical margins, grow at the same rate. In this paper, we consider the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-12-20 J. L. Wadsworth , J. A. Tawn

We consider an infinitely divisible random field indexed by $\mathbb{R}^d$, $d\in\mathbb{N}$, given as an integral of a kernel function with respect to a L\'evy basis with a L\'evy measure having a regularly varying right tail. First we…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-01-04 Anders Rønn-Nielsen , Mads Stehr

We consider a stationary stochastic volatility field $Y_vZ_v$ with $v\in\mathbb{Z}^d$, where $Z$ is regularly varying and $Y$ has lighter tails and is independent of $Z$. We make - relative to existing literature - very general assumptions…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-01-25 Mads Stehr , Anders Rønn-Nielsen

We investigate extremal statistical properties such as the maximal and the minimal heights of randomly generated binary trees. By analyzing the master evolution equations we show that the cumulative distribution of extremal heights…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 E. Ben-Naim , P. L. Krapivsky , Satya N. Majumdar

This paper deals with the question of conditional sampling and prediction for the class of stationary max-stable processes which allow for a mixed moving maxima representation. We develop an exact procedure for conditional sampling using…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-25 Marco Oesting , Martin Schlather

We present a new method for estimating the edge of a two-dimensional bounded set, given a finite random set of points drawn from the interior. The estimator is based both on Haar series and extreme values of the point process. We give…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-03-31 Stéphane Girard , Pierre Jacob

The extreme statistics of time signals is studied when the maximum is measured from the initial value. In the case of independent, identically distributed (iid) variables, we classify the limiting distribution of the maximum according to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-13 T. W. Burkhardt , G. Gyorgyi , N. R. Moloney , Z. Racz

In this work we study high probability bounds for stochastic subgradient methods under heavy tailed noise. In this setting the noise is only assumed to have finite variance as opposed to a sub-Gaussian distribution for which it is known…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-04-16 Daniela A. Parletta , Andrea Paudice , Massimiliano Pontil , Saverio Salzo

For many environmental processes, recent studies have shown that the dependence strength is decreasing when quantile levels increase. This implies that the popular max-stable models are inadequate to capture the rate of joint tail decay,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-14 Raphael Huser , Thomas Opitz , Emeric Thibaud

We develop and generalize the theory of extreme value for non-stationary stochastic processes, mostly by weakening the uniform mixing condition that was previously used in this setting. We apply our results to non-autonomous dynamical…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-06-27 Ana Cristina Moreira Freitas , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Sandro Vaienti

We consider the extreme value theory of a hyperbolic toral automorphism $T: \mathbb{T}^2 \to \mathbb{T}^2$ showing that if a H\"older observation $\phi$ which is a function of a Euclidean-type distance to a non-periodic point $\zeta$ is…

Data-driven anomaly detection methods typically build a model for the normal behavior of the target system, and score each data instance with respect to this model. A threshold is invariably needed to identify data instances with high (or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-09 Sreelekha Guggilam , S. M. Arshad Zaidi , Varun Chandola , Abani Patra

Max-stable processes are widely used to model spatial extremes. These processes exhibit asymptotic dependence meaning that the large values of the process can occur simultaneously over space. Recently, inverted max-stable processes have…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-01-20 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Jonathan A. Tawn

The aim of this paper is to study asymptotic geometric properties almost surely or/and in probability of extreme order statistics of an i.i.d. random field (potential) indexed by sites of multidimensional lattice cube, the volume of which…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-12-05 Arvydas Astrauskas

We consider a strictly stationary random field on the two-dimensional integer lattice with regularly varying marginal and finite-dimensional distributions. Exploiting the regular variation, we define the spatial extremogram which takes into…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-08 Ewa Damek , Thomas Mikosch , Yuwei Zhao , Jacek Zienkiewicz

Gaussian random processes which variances reach theirs maximum values at unique points are considered. Exact asymptotic behaviors of probabilities of large absolute maximums of theirs trajectories have been evaluated using Double Sum Method…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-01-29 E. Hashorva , S. Kobelkov , V. I. Piterbarg

When extreme weather events affect large areas, their regional to sub-continental spatial scale is important for their impacts. We propose a novel machine learning (ML) framework that integrates spatial extreme-value theory to model weather…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-29 Jonathan Koh , Daniel Steinfeld , Olivia Martius