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We find the variance-optimal equivalent martingale measure when multivariate assets are modeled by a regime-switching geometric Brownian motion, and the regimes are represented by a homogeneous continuous time Markov chain. Under this new…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-09-14 Bruno Remillard , Sylvain Rubenthaler

We consider the problem of estimating stochastic volatility for a class of second-order parabolic stochastic PDEs. Assuming that the solution is observed at a high temporal frequency, we use limit theorems for multipower variations and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-02 Carsten Chong

We consider the computation of free energy-like quantities for diffusions in high dimension, when resorting to Monte Carlo simulation is necessary. Such stochastic computations typically suffer from high variance, in particular in a low…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-07-06 Grégoire Ferré

This study presents contemporaneous modeling of asset return and price range within the framework of stochastic volatility with leverage. A new representation of the probability density function for the price range is provided, and its…

Computation · Statistics 2021-10-28 Yuta Kurose

Recent work shows that path gradient estimators for normalizing flows have lower variance compared to standard estimators for variational inference, resulting in improved training. However, they are often prohibitively more expensive from a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-26 Lorenz Vaitl , Ludwig Winkler , Lorenz Richter , Pan Kessel

We introduce a simple method for nearly simultaneous computation of all moments needed for quasi maximum likelihood estimation of parameters in discretely observed stochastic differential equations commonly seen in finance. The method…

Computation · Statistics 2015-09-28 Lars Josef Höök , Erik Lindström

Numerous empirical proofs indicate the adequacy of the time discrete auto-regressive stochastic volatility models introduced by Taylor in the description of the log-returns of financial assets. The pricing and hedging of contingent products…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2011-10-31 Joan del Castillo , Juan-Pablo Ortega

This paper presents an approach to estimating a hidden process in a continuous-time setting, where the hidden process is a diffusion. The approach is simply to minimize the negative log-likelihood of the hidden path, where the likelihood is…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-01-23 L. C. G. Rogers

We analyse the properties of an unbiased gradient estimator of the ELBO for variational inference, based on the score function method with leave-one-out control variates. We show that this gradient estimator can be obtained using a new…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-30 Lorenz Richter , Ayman Boustati , Nikolas Nüsken , Francisco J. R. Ruiz , Ömer Deniz Akyildiz

This paper presents a novel one-factor stochastic volatility model where the instantaneous volatility of the asset log-return is a diffusion with a quadratic drift and a linear dispersion function. The instantaneous volatility mean reverts…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-08-21 Peter Carr , Sander Willems

We develop a stochastic formulation of the optimally-tuned range-separated hybrid density functional theory which enables significant reduction of the computational effort and scaling of the non-local exchange operator at the price of…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2016-09-28 Daniel Neuhauser , Eran Rabani , Yael Cytter , Roi Baer

We consider the development of unbiased estimators, to approximate the stationary distribution of Mckean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations (MVSDEs). These are an important class of processes, which frequently appear in applications…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Elsiddig Awadelkarim , Neil K. Chada , Ajay Jasra

Stochastic optimization in learning and inference often relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to approximate gradients when exact computation is intractable. However, finite-time MCMC estimators are biased, and reducing this bias…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-02 Antoine Godichon-Baggioni , Gabriel Lang , Sylvain Le Corff , Julien Stoehr , Sobihan Surendran

We study the problem of computing the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of multivariate log-concave densities. Our main result is the first computationally efficient algorithm for this problem. In more detail, we give an algorithm that, on…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2018-12-14 Ilias Diakonikolas , Anastasios Sidiropoulos , Alistair Stewart

We apply the techniques of stochastic integration with respect to fractional Brownian motion and the theory of regularity and supremum estimation for stochastic processes to study the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the drift…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-08-22 Ciprian A. Tudor , Frederi G. Viens

The mixed fractional Vasicek model, which is an extended model of the traditional Vasicek model, has been widely used in modelling volatility, interest rate and exchange rate. Obviously, if some phenomenon are modeled by the mixed…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-16 Chunhao Cai , Yinzhong Huang , Weilin Xiao

We introduce a hybrid stochastic estimator to design stochastic gradient algorithms for solving stochastic optimization problems. Such a hybrid estimator is a convex combination of two existing biased and unbiased estimators and leads to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-05-16 Quoc Tran-Dinh , Nhan H. Pham , Dzung T. Phan , Lam M. Nguyen

The stochastic leverage effect, defined as the standardized covariation between the returns and their related volatility, is analyzed in a stochastic volatility model set-up. A novel estimator of the effect is defined using a pre-estimation…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-03-09 Imma Valentina Curato , Simona Sanfelici

We introduce a multi-fidelity estimator of covariance matrices that employs the log-Euclidean geometry of the symmetric positive-definite manifold. The estimator fuses samples from a hierarchy of data sources of differing fidelities and…

Computation · Statistics 2023-05-30 Aimee Maurais , Terrence Alsup , Benjamin Peherstorfer , Youssef Marzouk

We describe a set of new estimators for the N-point correlation functions of point processes. The variance of these estimators is calculated for the Poisson and binomial cases. It is shown that the variance of the unbiased estimator…

Astrophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 Istvan Szapudi , Alexander S. Szalay