Related papers: The Chinese Equity Bubble: Ready to Burst
There is a growing concern in recent years over the potential formation of bubbles in the Chinese real estate market. This paper aims to conduct a series of bubble diagnostic analysis over nine representative Chinese cities from two…
The systemic stability of a stock market is one of the core issues in the financial field. The market can be regarded as a complex network whose nodes are stocks connected by edges that signify their correlation strength. Since the market…
We study the dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chinese stock market mainly based on the random matrix theory (RMT). The correlation matrices constructed from the return series of 367 A-share stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock…
Keeping a basic tenet of economic theory, rational expectations, we model the nonlinear positive feedback between agents in the stock market as an interplay between nonlinearity and multiplicative noise. The derived hyperbolic stochastic…
In this paper, we study the dynamics of absolute return, trading volume and bid-ask spread after the trading halts using high-frequency data from the Shanghai Stock Exchange. We deal with all three types of trading halts, namely intraday…
Following our previous investigation of the USA Standard and Poor index anti-bubble that started in August 2000, we analyze thirty eight world stock market indices and identify 21 anti-bubble. An ``anti-bubble'' is defined as a…
In this paper, we quantitatively investigate the properties of a statistical ensemble of stock prices. We focus attention on the relative price defined as $ X(t) = S(t)/S(0) $, where $ S(0) $ is the initial price. We selected approximately…
Using a recently introduced rational expectation model of bubbles, based on the interplay between stochasticity and positive feedbacks of prices on returns and volatility, we develop a new methodology to test how this model classifies 9…
The study efforts to explore and extend the crisis predictability by synthetically reviewing and comparing a full mixture of early warning models into two constitutions: crisis identifications and predictive models. Given empirical results…
We introduce a mathematical criterion defining the bubbles or the crashes in financial market price fluctuations by considering exponential fitting of the given data. By applying this criterion we can automatically extract the periods in…
China's stock market is the largest emerging market all over the world. It is widely accepted that the Chinese stock market is far from efficiency and it possesses possible linear and nonlinear dependence. We study the predictability of…
We have performed detailed multifractal analysis on the minutely volatility of two indexes and 1139 stocks in the Chinese stock markets based on the partition function approach. The partition function $\chi_q(s)$ scales as a power law with…
The latest global financial tsunami and its follow-up global economic recession has uncovered the crucial impact of housing markets on financial and economic systems. The Chinese stock market experienced a markedly fall during the global…
The aim of this paper is to compare statistical properties of a bubble period with those of the anti-bubble period in stock markets. We investigate the statistical properties of daily data for the Nikkei 225 index in the 28-year period from…
We present an extension of the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model to include an additional pricing factor called the "Zipf factor", which describes the diversification risk of the stock market portfolio. Keeping all the dynamical…
The bubble is a controversial and important issue. Many methods which based on the rational expectation have been proposed to detect the bubble. However, for some developing countries, epically China, the asset markets are so young that for…
Financial market resilience reflects the ability of a financial market to withstand external shocks and to recover from them, while its measurement has yet to be standardized. Accordingly, this paper quantifies the adaptability and…
This paper proposes and motivates a dynamical model of the Chinese stock market based on a linear regression in a dual state space connected to the original state space of correlations between the volume-at-price buckets by a Fourier…
Emerging markets such as India provide investors with returns far greater than those in developed markets; taking the average returns from the period 1995 to 2014 the returns are 4.714% to 3.276% of the developed market. The majority of…
This paper investigates the solar term effect in China stock market as a supplementary to the existing literature of calender effect. Based on a regression framework, this paper verifies the existence of solar term effect in Shanghai Index…