Related papers: The Chinese Equity Bubble: Ready to Burst
We document a well-developed log-periodic power-law antibubble in China's stock market, which started in August 2001. We argue that the current stock market antibubble is sustained by a contemporary active unsustainable real-estate bubble…
By combining (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles, (ii) behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders and (iii) the mathematical and statistical physics of bifurcations and phase transitions, the…
Based on our "finance-prediction-oriented" methodology which involves such elements as log-periodic self-similarity, the universal preferred scaling factor lambda=2, and allows a phenomenon of the "super-bubble" we analyze the 2009 world…
We perform a comparative analysis of the Chinese stock market around the occurrence of the 2008 crisis based on the random matrix analysis of high-frequency stock returns of 1228 stocks listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges.…
We present a synthesis of all the available empirical evidence in the light of recent theoretical developments for the existence of characteristic log-periodic signatures of growing bubbles in a variety of markets including 8 unrelated…
The Nasdaq Composite fell another $\approx 10 %$ on Friday the 14'th of April 2000 signaling the end of a remarkable speculative high-tech bubble starting in spring 1997. The closing of the Nasdaq Composite at 3321 corresponds to a total…
This working paper analyzes the gold price dynamics on the basis of methodology developed by Didier Sornette. Our calculations indicate that this dynamics is close to the one of the "bubbles" studied by Sornette and that the most probable…
In this study, we perform a novel analysis of the 2015 financial bubble in the Chinese stock market by calibrating the Log Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model to two important Chinese stock indices, SSEC and SZSC, from early 2014…
This paper mainly utilizes the ARDL model and principal component analysis to investigate the relationship between the volatility of China's Shanghai Composite Index returns and the variables of exchange rate and domestic and foreign bond…
Technical trading rules have a long history of being used by practitioners in financial markets. Their profitable ability and efficiency of technical trading rules are yet controversial. In this paper, we test the performance of more than…
We present an advance bubble detection methodology based on the Log Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) confidence indicator for the early causal identification of positive and negative bubbles in the Chinese stock market using the daily…
We study a rational expectation model of bubbles and crashes. The model has two components : (1) our key assumption is that a crash may be caused by local self-reinforcing imitation between noise traders. If the tendency for noise traders…
The Chinese stock market experienced an abrupt crash in 2015, and over one-third of its market value evaporated. Given its associations with fear and the fine resolution with respect to frequency, the illiquidity of stocks may offer a…
This paper systematically conducts an analysis of the composite index 1-min datasets over the 17-year period (2005-2021) for both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges. To reveal the difference between the Chinese and the mature stock…
Whether or not stocks are predictable has been a topic of concern for decades.The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) says that it is difficult for investors to make extra profits by predicting stock prices, but this may not be true,…
The distribution of intertrade durations, defined as the waiting times between two consecutive transactions, is investigated based upon the limit order book data of 23 liquid Chinese stocks listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in the whole…
Between 2003 and 2015 the prices of apartments in Hong Kong (adjusted for inflation) increased by a factor of 3.8. This is much higher than in the United States prior to the so-called subprime crisis of 2007. The analysis of this…
Hypothesis of Market Efficiency is an important concept for the investors across the globe holding diversified portfolios. With the world economy getting more integrated day by day, more people are investing in global emerging markets. This…
This article continues our analysis of the gold price dynamics that was published in December 2010 (abs/1012.4118) and forecasted the possibility of the "burst of the gold bubble" in April - June 2011. Our recent analysis suggests the…
A taxonomy of large financial crashes proposed in the literature locates the burst of speculative bubbles due to endogenous causes in the framework of extreme stock market crashes, defined as falls of market prices that are outlier with…