Related papers: Les Probabilit\'es D\'efaillance comme Indicateurs…
Standard measures of batting performance such as a batting average and an on-base percentage can be decomposed into component rates such as strikeout rates and home run rates. The likelihood of hitting data for a group of players can be…
To answer questions of "causes of effects", the probability of necessity is introduced for assessing whether or not an observed outcome was caused by an earlier treatment. However, the statistical inference for probability of necessity is…
A multicomponent random process used as a model for the problem of space-time earthquake prediction; this allows us to develop consistent estimation for conditional probabilities of large earthquakes if the values of the predictor…
This paper presents the core principles of reliability in software engineering - outlining why reliability testing is critical and specifying the process of measuring reliability. The paper provides insight for both novice and experts in…
Model-based safety analysis approaches aim at finding critical failure combinations by analysis of models of the whole system (i.e. software, hardware, failure modes and environment). The advantage of these methods compared to traditional…
The European Machinery Directive and related harmonized standards do consider that software is used to generate safety-relevant behavior of the machinery but do not consider all kinds of software. In particular, software based on machine…
Systemic risk refers to the risk that the financial system is susceptible to failures due to the characteristics of the system itself. The tremendous cost of systemic risk requires the design and implementation of tools for the efficient…
We present a framework to formally describe probabilistic system behavior and symbolically reason about it. In particular we aim at reasoning about possible failures and fault tolerance. We regard systems which are composed of different…
Rigorous guarantees about the performance of predictive algorithms are necessary in order to ensure their responsible use. Previous work has largely focused on bounding the expected loss of a predictor, but this is not sufficient in many…
In this paper, we introduce a probabilistic approach to risk assessment of robot systems by focusing on the impact of uncertainties. While various approaches to identifying systematic hazards (e.g., bugs, design flaws, etc.) can be found in…
We investigate the statistical methods applied throughout safety analysis of complex systems. The tolerance interval method implemented in the widely utilized 0.95|0.95 methodology is analyzed. We point out a remarkable weakness of the…
In many areas of engineering and sciences, decision rules and control strategies are usually designed based on nominal values of relevant system parameters. To ensure that a control strategy or decision rule will work properly when the…
Metrics of model goodness-of-fit, model comparison, and model parameter estimation are the main categories of statistical problems in science. Bayesian and frequentist methods that address these questions often rely on a likelihood…
This manuscript presents an innovative framework for constructing barrier functions to bound reachability probabilities for continuous-time stochastic systems described by stochastic differential equations (SDEs). The reachability…
The p-values are often implicitly used as a measure of evidence for the hypotheses of the tests. This practice has been analyzed with different approaches. It is generally accepted for the one-sided hypothesis problem, but it is often…
When deployed in the real world, safe control methods must be robust to unstructured uncertainties such as modeling error and external disturbances. Typical robust safety methods achieve their guarantees by always assuming that the…
Information value, a measure for decision sensitivity, can provide essential information in engineering and environmental assessments. It quantifies the potential for improved decision-making when reducing uncertainty in specific inputs. By…
The design and operation of protective systems is an essential engineering responsibility. Ensuring public safety, while essential, must be accomplished at a feasible cost and within government regulation. Hence, protective system design…
In mechanical design, there is often unavoidable uncertainty in estimates of design performance. Evaluation of design alternatives requires consideration of the impact of this uncertainty. Expert heuristics embody assumptions regarding the…
Statistical estimation and inference for marginal hazard models with varying coefficients for multivariate failure time data are important subjects in survival analysis. A local pseudo-partial likelihood procedure is proposed for estimating…