Related papers: Les Probabilit\'es D\'efaillance comme Indicateurs…
A set of general formulas is proposed for the probability of failure on demand (PFD) assessment of MooN architecture (i.e. k-out-of-n) systems subject to partial and full tests. Partial tests (e.g. visual inspections, imperfect testing) may…
Effective software safety standards will contribute to confidence, or assurance, in the safety of the systems in which the software is used. It is infeasible to demonstrate a correlation between standards and accidents, but there is an…
We study the frequentist properties of confidence intervals computed by the method known to statisticians as the Profile Likelihood. It is seen that the coverage of these intervals is surprisingly good over a wide range of possible…
We consider a class of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with uncertain transition and/or observation probabilities. The uncertainty takes the form of probability intervals. Such uncertain POMDPs can be used, for…
Having observed low success rates among first-year university students in both Belgium and France, we develop prediction models in this paper in order to identify, at the earliest possible stage, those students who are at risk of failing at…
Classifiers are often tested on relatively small data sets, which should lead to uncertain performance metrics. Nevertheless, these metrics are usually taken at face value. We present an approach to quantify the uncertainty of…
Alerting experience with a well-acknowledged safety analysis code initiated the authors to pay attention to safety issues of complex systems. Their first concern was the statistical characteristics of such a code. We point out a remarkable…
Ensuring structural reliability remains a core concern in civil engineering, yet the quantitative effects of quality control measures on material variability and safety margins are not fully understood, especially for materials other than…
Many studies in economics deal with the non-reliability cost to assess insurance fees or investment analyses, but none takes into consideration the mechanical aspect of reliability analysis. Other studies in mechanics give some tools and…
Reliability is probability of success in a success-failure experiment. Confidence in reliability estimate improves with increasing number of samples. Assurance sets confidence level same as reliability to create one number for easier…
We study the safety verification problem for a class of distributed parameter systems described by partial differential equations (PDEs), i.e., the problem of checking whether the solutions of the PDE satisfy a set of constraints at a…
Safety-critical applications require controllers/policies that can guarantee safety with high confidence. The control barrier function is a useful tool to guarantee safety if we have access to the ground-truth system dynamics. In practice,…
Critical infrastructure systems must be both robust and resilient in order to ensure the functioning of society. To improve the performance of such systems, we often use risk and vulnerability analysis to find and address system weaknesses.…
A set of general formulas is proposed for the probability of failure on demand (PFD) assessment of MooN architecture (i.e. k-out-of-n) systems subject to proof tests. The proof tests can be partial or full. The partial tests (e.g. visual…
Recently the European Union Agency for Railways (ERA) has received a mandate for 'the development of common safety methods for assessing the safety level and the safety performance of railway operators at national and Union level'.…
Climate change communication is crucial to raising awareness and motivating action. In the context of breaching the limits set out by the Paris Agreement, we argue that climate scientists should move away from point estimates and towards…
Accurate quantification of safety is essential for the design of autonomous systems. In this paper, we present a methodology to characterize the exact probabilities associated with invariance and recovery in safe control. We consider a…
Recently, barrier certificates have been introduced to prove the safety of continuous or hybrid dynamical systems. A barrier certificate needs to exhibit some barrier function, which partitions the state space in two subsets: the safe…
We present a quantitative model for tracking dangerous AI capabilities over time. Our goal is to help the policy and research community visualise how dangerous capability testing can give us an early warning about approaching AI risks. We…
Failures are challenging for learning to control physical systems since they risk damage, time-consuming resets, and often provide little gradient information. Adding safety constraints to exploration typically requires a lot of prior…