Related papers: Forward Flux Sampling for rare event simulations

The efficiency of atomic simulations of materials and molecules can rapidly deteriorate when large free energy barriers exist between local minima. We propose smooth basin classification, a universal method to define reaction coordinates…

Detecting rare events, those defined to give rise to high impact but have a low probability of occurring, is a challenge in a number of domains including meteorological, environmental, financial and economic. The use of machine learning to…

We present a theory and accompanying importance sampling method for computing rate constants in spatially inhomogenious systems. Using the relationship between rate constants and path space partition functions, we illustrate that the…

Simulations of turbulent flows in 3D are one of the most expensive simulations in computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Many works have been written on surrogate models to replace numerical solvers for fluid flows with faster, learned,…

We study rare events in systems of diffusive fields driven out of equilibrium by the boundaries. We present a numerical technique and use it to calculate the probabilities of rare events in one and two dimensions. Using this technique, we…

In this paper we develop a methodology that we call split sampling methods to estimate high dimensional expectations and rare event probabilities. Split sampling uses an auxiliary variable MCMC simulation and expresses the expectation of…

Modeling transformations between arbitrary data distributions is a fundamental scientific challenge, arising in applications like drug discovery and evolutionary simulation. While flow matching offers a natural framework for this task, its…

Flow matching has recently emerged as a powerful paradigm for generative modeling and has been extended to probabilistic time series forecasting in latent spaces. However, the impact of the specific choice of probability path model on…

Safety-critical scenarios are essential for the development of autonomous vehicles (AVs) but are rare in real-world driving data. While simulation offers a way to generate such scenarios, manually designed test cases lack scalability, and…

We derive precursors of extreme dissipation events in a turbulent channel flow. Using a recently developed method that combines dynamics and statistics for the underlying attractor, we extract a characteristic state that precedes…

Rare events in non-linear dynamical systems are difficult to sample because of the sensitivity to perturbations of initial conditions and of complex landscapes in phase space. Here we discuss strategies to control these difficulties and…

Survival analysis, or time-to-event modelling, is a classical statistical problem that has garnered a lot of interest for its practical use in epidemiology, demographics or actuarial sciences. Recent advances on the subject from the point…

Encoding frequency stability constraints in the operation problem is challenging due to its complex dynamics. Recently, data-driven approaches have been proposed to learn the stability criteria offline with the trained model embedded as a…

For accurate simulations of rarefied gas flows around moving obstacles, we propose a cut cell method on Cartesian grids: it allows exact conservation and accurate treatment of boundary conditions. Our approach is designed to treat Cartesian…

Many applications of computational fluid dynamics require multiple simulations of a flow under different input conditions. In this paper, a numerical algorithm is developed to efficiently determine a set of such simulations in which the…

Sampling the collective, dynamical fluctuations that lead to nonequilibrium pattern formation requires probing rare regions of trajectory space. Recent approaches to this problem based on importance sampling, cloning, and spectral…

Max-stable random fields play a central role in modeling extreme value phenomena. We obtain an explicit formula for the conditional probability in general max-linear models, which include a large class of max-stable random fields. As a…

Spontaneous structural rearrangements play a central role in the organization and function of complex biomolecular systems. In principle, physics-based computer simulations like Molecular Dynamics (MD) enable us to investigate these…

A precursory dynamics, motivated by the analysis of recent experiments on solid-on-solid friction, is introduced in a continuous cellular automaton that mimics the essential physical contents of earthquake source processes. The resulting…

We propose an adaptive importance sampling scheme for the simulation of rare events when the underlying dynamics is given by a diffusion. The scheme is based on a Gibbs variational principle that is used to determine the optimal (i.e.…