Related papers: Markov chains conditioned never to wait too long a…

When the initial and transition probabilities of a finite Markov chain in discrete time are not well known, we should perform a sensitivity analysis. This can be done by considering as basic uncertainty models the so-called credal sets that…

Let $(X,\p_x)$ be a continuous time Markov chain with finite or countable state space $S$ and let $T$ be its first passage time in a subset $D$ of $S$. It is well known that if $\mu$ is a quasi-stationary distribution relatively to $T$,…

Let $P$ be the transition matrix of a finite, irreducible and reversible Markov chain. We say the continuous time Markov chain $X$ has transition matrix $P$ and speed $\lambda$ if it jumps at rate $\lambda$ according to the matrix $P$. Fix…

The distribution of the "mixing time" or the "time to stationarity" in a discrete time irreducible Markov chain, starting in state i, can be defined as the number of trials to reach a state sampled from the stationary distribution of the…

In this paper we give sufficient conditions for the almost sure central limit theorem started at a point, known under the name of quenched central limit theorem. This is achieved by using a new idea of conditioning with respect to both the…

We consider the problem of finding the transition rates of a continuous-time homogeneous Markov chain under the empirical condition that the state changes at most once during a time interval of unit length. It is proven that this…

We consider a discrete time hidden Markov model where the signal is a stationary Markov chain. When conditioned on the observations, the signal is a Markov chain in a random environment under the conditional measure. It is shown that this…

We consider moments of the return times (or first hitting times) in a discrete time discrete space Markov chain. It is classical that the finiteness of the first moment of a return time of one state implies the finiteness of the first…

Dealing with finite Markov chains in discrete time, the focus often lies on convergence behavior and one tries to make different copies of the chain meet as fast as possible and then stick together. There is, however, a very peculiar kind…

We consider triangular arrays of Markov chains that converge weakly to a diffusion process. Local limit theorems for transition densities are proved. The observation time [0,T] may be fixed or lim n T = 0, where nh = T and h is a mesh…

Mostof the existing literature on supervised machine learning problems focuses on the case when the training data set is drawn from an i.i.d. sample. However, many practical problems are characterized by temporal dependence and strong…

The cover time of a Markov chain on a finite state space is the expected time until all states are visited. We show that if the cover time of a discrete-time Markov chain with rational transitions probabilities is bounded, then it is a…

We establish the weak large deviations principle for empirical measures of Markov chains on $\mathbb R^d$ under mild assumptions. In particular, no irreducibility is assumed and the initial measure may be arbitrary. The proof is entirely…

If the conditional information of a classical probability distribution of three random variables is zero, then it obeys a Markov chain condition. If the conditional information is close to zero, then it is known that the distance (minimum…

Exponential stability of the nonlinear filtering equation is revisited, when the signal is a finite state Markov chain. An asymptotic upper bound for the filtering error due to incorrect initial condition is derived in the case of slowly…

Consider a Markov chain $\{X_n\}_{n\ge 0}$ with an ergodic probability measure $\pi$. Let $\Psi$ a function on the state space of the chain, with $\alpha$-tails with respect to $\pi$, $\alpha\in (0,2)$. We find sufficient conditions on the…

We study the limit behaviour of upper and lower bounds on expected time averages in imprecise Markov chains; a generalised type of Markov chain where the local dynamics, traditionally characterised by transition probabilities, are now…

Let $X$ be the constrained random walk on ${\mathbb Z}_+^2$ having increments $(1,0)$, $(-1,1)$, $(0,-1)$ with jump probabilities $\lambda(M_k)$, $\mu_1(M_k)$, and $\mu_2(M_k)$ where $M$ is an irreducible aperiodic finite state Markov…

A discrete-time Markov chain can be transformed into a new Markov chain by looking at its states along iterations of an almost surely finite stopping time. By the optional stopping theorem, any bounded harmonic function with respect to the…

We consider irreducible reversible discrete time Markov chains on a finite state space. Mixing times and hitting times are fundamental parameters of the chain. We relate them by showing that the mixing time of the lazy chain is equivalent…