Related papers: Finite sampling interval effects in Kramers-Moyal …
A new optimization procedure for the estimation of Kramers-Moyal coefficients from stationary, one-dimensional, Markovian time series data is presented. The method takes advantage of a recently reported approach that allows to calculate…
We analyze the impact of the sampling interval on the estimation of Kramers-Moyal coefficients. We obtain the finite-time expressions of these coefficients for several standard processes. We also analyze extreme situations such as the…
The Kramers-Moyal analysis is a well established approach to analyze stochastic time series from complex systems. If the sampling interval of a measured time series is too low, systematic errors occur in the analysis results. These errors…
Kramers-Moyal coefficients provide a simple and easily visualized method with which to analyze stochastic time series, particularly nonlinear ones. One mechanism that can affect the estimation of the coefficients is geometric projection…
With the aim of improving the reconstruction of stochastic evolution equations from empirical time-series data, we derive a full representation of the generator of the Kramers-Moyal operator via a power-series expansion of the exponential…
Rare trajectories of stochastic systems are important to understand -- because of their potential impact. However, their properties are by definition difficult to sample directly. Population dynamics provides a numerical tool allowing their…
Large-scale data are often characterized by some degree of inhomogeneity as data are either recorded in different time regimes or taken from multiple sources. We look at regression models and the effect of randomly changing coefficients,…
We explore the effect of finite population sampling in design problems with many variables cross-classified in many ways. In particular, we investigate designs where we wish to sample individuals belonging to different groups for which the…
Estimation of causal effects using machine learning methods has become an active research field in econometrics. In this paper, we study the finite sample performance of meta-learners for estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects under…
This study introduces an innovative local statistical moment approach for estimating Kramers-Moyal coefficients, effectively bridging the gap between nonparametric and parametric methodologies. These coefficients play a crucial role in…
We study the effects of the finite number of experimental data on the computation of a generalized fluctuation-dissipation relation around a nonequilibrium steady state of a Brownian particle in a toroidal optical trap. We show that the…
We investigate the statistics of recurrences to finite size intervals for chaotic dynamical systems. We find that the typical distribution presents an exponential decay for almost all recurrence times except for a few short times affected…
A novel data-driven methodology is presented for the joint selection of prior parameters for both fixed and random effects in Linear Mixed Models (LMMs). This approach facilitates the estimation of complex random-effects structures, as well…
Cram\'{e}r-type large deviations for means of samples from a finite population are established under weak conditions. The results are comparable to results for the so-called self-normalized large deviation for independent random variables.…
Clinical prediction models enable healthcare professionals to estimate individual outcomes using patient characteristics. Current sample size guidelines for developing or updating models with continuous outcomes aim to minimise overfitting…
It is shown that prize changes of the US dollar - German Mark exchange rates upon different delay times can be regarded as a stochastic Marcovian process. Furthermore we show that from the empirical data the Kramers-Moyal coefficients can…
We consider the estimation of large covariance and precision matrices from high-dimensional sub-Gaussian or heavier-tailed observations with slowly decaying temporal dependence. The temporal dependence is allowed to be long-range so with…
We study nonasymptotic (finite-sample) confidence intervals for treatment effects in randomized experiments. In the existing literature, the effective sample sizes of nonasymptotic confidence intervals tend to be looser than the…
We propose several prediction intervals procedures for the individual treatment effect with either finite-sample or asymptotic coverage guarantee in a non-parametric regression setting, where non-linear regression functions,…
Probability estimation by maximum entropy reconstruction of an initial relative frequency estimate from its projection onto a hypergraph model of the approximate conditional independence relations exhibited by it is investigated. The…