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We study nonparametric Bayesian statistical inference for the parameters governing a pure jump process of the form $$Y_t = \sum_{k=1}^{N(t)} Z_k,~~~ t \ge 0,$$ where $N(t)$ is a standard Poisson process of intensity $\lambda$, and $Z_k$ are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-10-02 Richard Nickl , Jakob Söhl

Given a random sample from a distribution with density function that depends on an unknown parameter $\theta$, we are interested in accurately estimating the true parametric density function at a future observation from the same…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Mihaela Aslan

Bayesian nonparametric mixture models are common for modeling complex data. While these models are well-suited for density estimation, recent results proved posterior inconsistency of the number of clusters when the true number of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-31 Louise Alamichel , Daria Bystrova , Julyan Arbel , Guillaume Kon Kam King

This paper presents a study of the large-sample behavior of the posterior distribution of a structural parameter which is partially identified by moment inequalities. The posterior density is derived based on the limited information…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-01-13 Yuan Liao , Wenxin Jiang

A number of discrete time, finite population size models in genetics describing the dynamics of allele frequencies are known to converge (subject to suitable scaling) to a diffusion process in the infinite population limit, termed the…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-09-14 Jaromir Sant , Paul A. Jenkins , Jere Koskela , Dario Spano

We consider Bayesian model selection in generalized linear models that are high-dimensional, with the number of covariates p being large relative to the sample size n, but sparse in that the number of active covariates is small compared to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-12-26 Rina Foygel , Mathias Drton

In this article, we investigate large sample properties of model selection procedures in a general Bayesian framework when a closed form expression of the marginal likelihood function is not available or a local asymptotic quadratic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-01-10 Yun Yang , Debdeep Pati

Testing the (in)equality of variances is an important problem in many statistical applications. We develop default Bayes factor tests to assess the (in)equality of two or more population variances, as well as a test for whether the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-02 Fabian Dablander , Don van den Bergh , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers , Alexander Ly

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) offer a natural probabilistic formulation for inference in deep learning models. Despite their popularity, their optimality has received limited attention through the lens of statistical decision theory. In…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-07 Daniel Andrew Coulson , Martin T. Wells

We consider the use of Bayesian information criteria for selection of the graph underlying an Ising model. In an Ising model, the full conditional distributions of each variable form logistic regression models, and variable selection…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-09 Rina Foygel Barber , Mathias Drton

In the bayesian analysis of Inverse Problems most relevant cases the forward maps (FM, or regressor function) are defined in terms of a system of (O, P)DE's with intractable solutions. These necessarily involve a numerical method to find…

Computation · Statistics 2017-08-31 J. Andrés Christen , Marcos A. Capistrán , Miguel Ángel Moreles

Statisticians often face the choice between using probability models or a paradigm defined by minimising a loss function. Both approaches are useful and, if the loss can be re-cast into a proper probability model, there are many tools to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-29 Jack Jewson , David Rossell

We propose a methodology for modeling and comparing probability distributions within a Bayesian nonparametric framework. Building on dependent normalized random measures, we consider a prior distribution for a collection of discrete random…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-01 Mario Beraha , Jim E. Griffin

The proposed approach extends the confidence posterior distribution to the semi-parametric empirical Bayes setting. Whereas the Bayesian posterior is defined in terms of a prior distribution conditional on the observed data, the confidence…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-05-02 David R. Bickel

With the advent of high-performance computing, Bayesian methods are increasingly popular tools for the quantification of uncertainty throughout science and industry. Since these methods impact the making of sometimes critical decisions in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-05-20 Houman Owhadi , Clint Scovel , Tim Sullivan

We develop a code length principle which is invariant to the choice of parameterization on the model distributions. An invariant approximation formula for easy computation of the marginal distribution is provided for gaussian likelihood…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2007-07-13 Eirik Fossgaard

The problem of model selection in the context of a system of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) has not been touched upon in the literature. Indeed, properties of Bayes factors have not been studied even in single SDE based model…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-04-18 Trisha Maitra , Sourabh Bhattacharya

In this paper, we consider Bayesian inference on a class of multivariate median and the multivariate quantile functionals of a joint distribution using a Dirichlet process prior. Since, unlike univariate quantiles, the exact posterior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-03 Indrabati Bhattacharya , Subhashis Ghosal

In the problem of selecting variables in a multivariate linear regression model, we derive new Bayesian information criteria based on a prior mixing a smooth distribution and a delta distribution. Each of them can be interpreted as a fusion…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-09-29 Haruki Kono , Tatsuya Kubokawa

We discuss Bayesian inference for parameters selected using the data. First, we provide a critical analysis of the existing positions in the literature regarding the correct Bayesian approach under selection. Second, we propose two types of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-12 Daniel G. Rasines , G. Alastair Young