Asymptotically minimax Bayes predictive densities
Abstract
Given a random sample from a distribution with density function that depends on an unknown parameter , we are interested in accurately estimating the true parametric density function at a future observation from the same distribution. The asymptotic risk of Bayes predictive density estimates with Kullback--Leibler loss function is used to examine various ways of choosing prior distributions; the principal type of choice studied is minimax. We seek asymptotically least favorable predictive densities for which the corresponding asymptotic risk is minimax. A result resembling Stein's paradox for estimating normal means by the maximum likelihood holds for the uniform prior in the multivariate location family case: when the dimensionality of the model is at least three, the Jeffreys prior is minimax, though inadmissible. The Jeffreys prior is both admissible and minimax for one- and two-dimensional location problems.
Cite
@article{arxiv.0708.0177,
title = {Asymptotically minimax Bayes predictive densities},
author = {Mihaela Aslan},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:0708.0177},
year = {2009}
}
Comments
Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053606000000885 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)