Related papers: Extinction rate fragility in population dynamics
I present a simple numerical model based on iteratively updating subgroups of a population, individually modeled by nonnegative real numbers, by a constant decay factor; however, at each iteration, one group is selected to instead be…
Using data drawn from large-scale databases, a number of interesting trends in the fossil record have been observed in recent years. These include the average decline in extinction rates throughout the Phanerozoic, the average increase in…
Models of population growth and extinction are an increasingly popular subject of study. However, consequences of stochasticity and noise in shaping distributions and outcomes are not sufficiently explored. Here we consider a distributed…
As a result of climate change, many populations have to modify their range to follow the suitable areas - their "climate envelope" - often risking extinction. During this migration process, they may face absolute boundaries to dispersal,…
We use interacting particle systems to investigate survival and extinction of a species with colonies located on each site of $\mathbb {Z}^d$. In each of the four models studied, an individual in a local population can reproduce, die or…
Understanding the relationship between a populations probability of extinction and its carrying capacity frames conservation status assessments and guides efforts to understand and mitigate the ongoing biodiversity crisis. Despite this, our…
Theoretical ecologists have long sought to understand how the persistence of populations depends on biotic and abiotic factors. Classical work showed that demographic stochasticity causes the mean time to extinction to increase…
We study a branching random walk on $\r$ with an absorbing barrier. The position of the barrier depends on the generation. In each generation, only the individuals born below the barrier survive and reproduce. Given a reproduction law,…
Introducing the effect of extinction into the so-called replicator equations in mathematical biology, we construct a general model of ecosystems. The present model shows mass extinction by its own extinction dynamics when the system…
Bet-hedging is a phenotype diversification strategy that combines a fast-growing vulnerable phenotype with a slow-growing resistant phenotype. In environments switching between favorable and unfavorable conditions, bet-hedging optimizes…
The question of whether a population will persist or go extinct is of key interest throughout ecology and biology. Various mathematical techniques allow us to generate knowledge regarding individual behaviour, which can be analysed to…
This paper deals with an impulsive degenerate logistic model, where pulses are introduced for modeling interventions or disturbances, and degenerate logistic term may describe refugees or protections zones for the species. Firstly, the…
Forest-fire and avalanche models support the notion that frequent catastrophes prevent the growth of very large populations and as such prevent rare large-scale catastrophes. We show that this notion is not universal. A new model class…
Motivated by recent epidemic outbreaks, including those of COVID-19, we solve the canonical problem of calculating the dynamics and likelihood of extensive outbreaks in a population within a large class of stochastic epidemic models with…
Demographic data and recent experiments verify earlier predictions that mortality has short (few percent of the life span) memory of the previous life history, may be significantly decreased, reset to its value at a much younger age, and…
This paper is concerned with a nonlocal dispersal susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model with Dirichlet boundary condition, where the rates of disease transmission and recovery are assumed to be spatially heterogeneous. We…
We study the influence of global, local and community-level risk perception on the extinction probability of a disease in several models of social networks. In particular, we study the infection progression as a…
We propose a model of multispecies populations surviving on distributed resources. System dynamics are investigated under changes in abiotic factors such as the climate, as parameterized through environmental temperature. In particular, we…
The presence of a unique absorbing state in the finite state space of an epidemic process always poses a challenge in the definition of its epidemiological threshold. Without the elimination of the absorbing state of the SIS process we show…
This paper deals with extinction of an isolated population caused by intrinsic noise. We model the population dynamics in a "refuge" as a Markov process which involves births and deaths on discrete lattice sites and random migrations…