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This paper gives a new flavor of what Peter Jagers and his co-authors call `the path to extinction'. In a neutral population with constant size $N$, we assume that each individual at time $0$ carries a distinct type, or allele. We consider…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Guillaume Achaz , Amaury Lambert , Emmanuel Schertzer

Sweepstakes reproduction refers to a highly skewed individual recruitment success without involving natural selection and may apply to individuals in broadcast spawning populations characterised by Type III survivorship. We consider an…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-01-14 Jonathan A Chetwynd-Diggle , Bjarki Eldon

The evolving Kingman coalescent is the tree-valued process which records the time evolution undergone by the genealogies of Moran populations. We consider the associated process of total external tree length of the evolving Kingman…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-06-20 Iulia Dahmer , Götz Kersting

The goal of these lectures is to review some mathematical aspects of random tree models used in evolutionary biology to model gene trees or species trees. We start with stochastic models of tree shapes (finite trees without edge lengths),…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-08-30 Amaury Lambert

The nested Kingman coalescent describes the ancestral tree of a population undergoing neutral evolution at the level of individuals and at the level of species, simultaneously. We study the speed at which the number of lineages descends…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-28 Airam Blancas Benítez , Tim Rogers , Jason Schweinsberg , Arno Siri-Jégousse

The observed sequence variation at a locus informs about the evolutionary history of the sample and past population size dynamics. The Kingman coalescent is used in a generative model of molecular sequence variation to infer evolutionary…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-22 Lorenzo Cappello , Amandine Veber , Julia A. Palacios

The time evolution of spatial fluctuations in inhomogeneous d-dimensional biological systems is analyzed. A single species continuous growth model, in which the population disperses via diffusion and convection is considered.…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-10-30 David R. Nelson , Nadav M. Shnerb

We introduce a general diploid population model with self-fertilization and possible overlapping generations, and study the genealogy of a sample of $n$ genes as the population size $N$ tends to infinity. Unlike traditional approach in…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-01 Louis Wai-Tong Fan , Maximillian Newman , John Wakeley

We consider population models in which the individuals reproduce, die and also migrate in space. The population size scales according to some parameter $N$, which can have different interpretations depending on the context. Each individual…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-12-21 Ankit Gupta

We study in detail a recently proposed simple discrete model for evolution on smooth landscapes. An asymptotic solution of this model for long times is constructed. We find that the dynamics of the population are governed by correlation…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-10-28 David A. Kessler , Herbert Levine , Douglas Ridgway , Lev Tsimring

The star-shaped $\Lambda$-coalescent and corresponding $\Lambda$-Fleming-Viot process where the $\Lambda$ measure has a single atom at unity are studied in this paper. The transition functions and stationary distribution of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-05-10 Robert Griffiths , Shuhei Mano

We study the evolution of the population genealogy in the classic neutral Moran Model of finite size and in discrete time. The stochastic transformations that shape a Moran population can be realized directly on its genealogy and give rise…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-02-08 Johannes Wirtz , Thomas Wiehe

We prove several limit theorems that relate coalescent processes to continuous-state branching processes. Some of these theorems are stated in terms of the so-called generalized Fleming-Viot processes, which describe the evolution of a…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Jean Bertoin , Jean-François Le Gall

Test-time scaling has emerged as a promising direction for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models in last few years. In this work, we propose Population-Evolve, a training-free method inspired by Genetic Algorithms to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-12-23 Yanzhi Zhang , Yitong Duan , Zhaoxi Zhang , Jiyan He , Shuxin Zheng

Widely used models in genetics include the Wright-Fisher diffusion and its moment dual, Kingman's coalescent. Each has a multilocus extension but under neither extension is the sampling distribution available in closed-form, and their…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-24 Paul A. Jenkins , Paul Fearnhead , Yun S. Song

Population genetics theory has laid the foundations for genomics analyses including the recent burst in genome scans for selection and statistical inference of past demographic events in many prokaryote, animal and plant species.…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2014-01-22 Aurelien Tellier , Christophe Lemaire

We study a universal object for the genealogy of a sample in populations with mutations: the critical birth-death process with Poissonian mutations, conditioned on its population size at a fixed time horizon. We show how this process arises…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-30 G. Achaz , C. Delaporte , A. Lambert

Consider a continuous-state branching population constructed as a flow of nested subordinators. Inverting the subordinators and reversing time give rise to a flow of coalescing Markov processes (with negative jumps) which correspond to the…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-12-04 Clément Foucart , Chunhua Ma , Bastien Mallein

We construct a constant size population model allowing for general selective interactions and extreme reproductive events. It generalizes the idea of (Krone and Neuhauser 1997) who represented the selection by allowing individuals to sample…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-04-17 Adrian Gonzalez Casanova , Charline Smadi

We introduce a biologically natural, mathematically tractable model of random phylogenetic network to describe evolution in the presence of hybridization. One of the features of this model is that the hybridization rate of the lineages…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-02-27 François Bienvenu , Jean-Jil Duchamps