Related papers: How random are a learner's mistakes?
How many training data are needed to learn a supervised task? It is often observed that the generalization error decreases as $n^{-\beta}$ where $n$ is the number of training examples and $\beta$ an exponent that depends on both data and…
The problem of statistical learning is to construct a predictor of a random variable $Y$ as a function of a related random variable $X$ on the basis of an i.i.d. training sample from the joint distribution of $(X,Y)$. Allowable predictors…
The probability of an event is in the range of [0, 1]. In a sample space S, the value of probability determines whether an outcome is true or false. The probability of an event Pr(A) that will never occur = 0. The probability of the event…
The behavior of real quantum hardware differs strongly from the simple error models typically used when simulating quantum error correction. Error processes are far more complex than simple depolarizing noise applied to single gates, and…
In two previous experiments we investigated the neural precursors of subjects' "free" choices for one of two options (pressing one of two buttons, and choosing between adding and subtracting numbers). In these experiments the distribution…
Most models of machine teaching and learning assume the learner makes no errors in its internal deductive inference. However, humans and large language models in few-shot learning regimes are two important examples of learners where this…
In this brief note, we consider estimation of the bitwise combination $x_1 \lor \dots \lor x_n = \max_i x_i$ observing a set of noisy bits $\tilde x_i \in \{0, 1\}$ that represent the true, unobserved bits $x_i \in \{0, 1\}$ under…
Let $(X,Y)\in\mathcal{X}\times \mathcal{Y}$ be a random couple with unknown distribution $P$. Let $\GG$ be a class of measurable functions and $\ell$ a loss function. The problem of statistical learning deals with the estimation of the…
We consider a model of selective prediction, where the prediction algorithm is given a data sequence in an online fashion and asked to predict a pre-specified statistic of the upcoming data points. The algorithm is allowed to choose when to…
We investigate the probability of observing a given pattern of $n$ rises and falls in a random stationary data series. The data are modelled as a sequence of $n+1$ independent and identically distributed random numbers. This probabilistic…
The probability of observing $x_t$ at time $t$, given past observations $x_1...x_{t-1}$ can be computed with Bayes' rule if the true generating distribution $\mu$ of the sequences $x_1x_2x_3...$ is known. If $\mu$ is unknown, but known to…
The forecasting problem for a stationary and ergodic binary time series $\{X_n\}_{n=0}^{\infty}$ is to estimate the probability that $X_{n+1}=1$ based on the observations $X_i$, $0\le i\le n$ without prior knowledge of the distribution of…
We consider the fundamental problem of communicating an estimate of a real number $x\in[0,1]$ using a single bit. A sender that knows $x$ chooses a value $X\in\set{0,1}$ to transmit. In turn, a receiver estimates $x$ based on the value of…
Let X^{(k)}(t) = (X_1(t), ..., X_k(t)) denote a k-vector of i.i.d. random variables, each taking the values 1 or 0 with respective probabilities p and 1-p. As a process indexed by non-negative t, $X^{(k)}(t)$ is constructed--following…
When considering binary strings, it's natural to wonder how many distinct subsequences might exist in a given string. Given that there is an existing algorithm which provides a straightforward way to compute the number of distinct…
Sequential learning -- where complex tasks are broken down into simpler, hierarchical components -- has emerged as a paradigm in AI. This paper views sequential learning through the lens of low-rank linear regression, focusing specifically…
We have investigated instability of a superconducting quantum computer by continuously monitoring the qubit output. We found that qubits exhibit a step-like change in the error rates. This change is repeatedly observed, and each step…
A simple method to produce a random order type is to take the order type of a random point set. We conjecture that many probability distributions on order types defined in this way are heavily concentrated and therefore sample inefficiently…
We consider a discrete time population model for which each individual alive at time $n$ survives independently of everybody else at time $n+1$ with probability $\beta_n$. The sequence $(\beta_n)$ is i.i.d. and constitutes our random…
In this paper, we study a variant of the framework of online learning using expert advice with limited/bandit feedback. We consider each expert as a learning entity, seeking to more accurately reflecting certain real-world applications. In…