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A dangerous assumption that can be made from prior work on the bias transfer hypothesis (BTH) is that biases do not transfer from pre-trained large language models (LLMs) to adapted models. We invalidate this assumption by studying the BTH…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-20 Nivedha Sivakumar , Natalie Mackraz , Samira Khorshidi , Krishna Patel , Barry-John Theobald , Luca Zappella , Nicholas Apostoloff

In this article the issues are discussed with the Bayesian approach, least-square fits, and most-likely fits. Trying to counter these issues, a method, based on weighted confidence, is proposed for estimating probabilities and other…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-01-26 Fetze Pijlman

Preferential sampling is a common feature in geostatistics and occurs when the locations to be sampled are chosen based on information about the phenomena under study. In this case, point pattern models are commonly used as the probability…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-27 Douglas Mateus da Silva , Dani Gamerman

Properties of weighted averages are studied for the general case that the individual measurements are subject to hidden correlations and have asymmetric statistical as well as systematic errors. Explicit expressions are derived for an…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2007-05-23 Michael Schmelling

Unmeasured confounding may undermine the validity of causal inference with observational studies. Sensitivity analysis provides an attractive way to partially circumvent this issue by assessing the potential influence of unmeasured…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-07-15 Peng Ding , Tyler VanderWeele

Observational studies can play a useful role in assessing the comparative effectiveness of competing treatments. In a clinical trial the randomization of participants to treatment and control groups generally results in well-balanced groups…

Observational data is often readily available in large quantities, but can lead to biased causal effect estimates due to the presence of unobserved confounding. Recent works attempt to remove this bias by supplementing observational data…

Measurement error is a pervasive challenge across many disciplines, yet its impact on sample size determination and the accuracy and precision of estimators regarding the association between an exposure and an outcome remains understudied…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-27 Honghyok Kim

We provide an approach to exploratory data analysis in matched observational studies with a single intervention and multiple endpoints. In such settings, the researcher would like to explore evidence for actual treatment effects among these…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-10 Mengqi Lin , Colin Fogarty

Two recently introduced model based bias corrected estimators for proportion of true null hypotheses ($\pi_0$) under multiple hypotheses testing scenario have been restructured for exponentially distributed random observations available for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-28 Aniket Biswas , Gaurangadeb Chattopadhyay , Aditya Chatterjee

Instrumental variable (IV) methods are becoming increasingly popular as they seem to offer the only viable way to overcome the problem of unobserved confounding in observational studies. However, some attention has to be paid to the…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-11-03 Vanessa Didelez , Sha Meng , Nuala A. Sheehan

Randomized A/B tests within online learning platforms represent an exciting direction in learning sciences. With minimal assumptions, they allow causal effect estimation without confounding bias and exact statistical inference even in small…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-13 Adam C. Sales , Ethan B. Prihar , Johann A. Gagnon-Bartsch , Neil T. Heffernan

When eliciting opinions from a group of experts, traditional devices used to promote honest reporting assume that there is an observable future outcome. In practice, however, this assumption is not always reasonable. In this paper, we…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2013-10-23 Arthur Carvalho , Stanko Dimitrov , Kate Larson

It is common to conduct causal inference in matched observational studies by proceeding as though treatment assignments within matched sets are assigned uniformly at random and using this distribution as the basis for inference. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-14 Samuel D. Pimentel , Yaxuan Huang

We explore how violations of the often-overlooked standard assumption that the random effects model matrix in a linear mixed model is fixed (and thus independent of the random effects vector) can lead to bias in estimators of estimable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-23 Andrew T. Karl , Dale L. Zimmerman

Regression calibration as developed by Rosner, Spiegelman and Willet is used to correct the bias in effect estimates due to measurement error in continuous exposures. The method involves two models: a measurement error model (MEM) relating…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-24 Wenze Tang , Donna Spiegelman , Xiaomei Liao , Molin Wang

We consider Empirical Bayes (EB) estimation in the normal means problem, when the standard deviations of the observations are not known precisely, but estimated with error -- which is almost always the case in practical applications. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-31 Mengyin Lu , Matthew Stephens

Many clinical endpoint measures, such as the number of standard drinks consumed per week or the number of days that patients stayed in the hospital, are count data with excessive zeros. However, the zero-inflated nature of such outcomes is…

Applications · Statistics 2022-07-14 Zhengyang Zhou , Minge Xie , David Huh , Eun-Young Mun

In an observational study, it is common to leverage known null effect to detect bias. One such strategy is to set aside a placebo sample -- a subset of data immune from the hypothesized cause-and-effect relationship. Existence of an effect…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-05 Ting Ye , Shuxiao Chen , Bo Zhang

Regression adjustments are often made to experimental data. Since randomization does not justify the models, bias is likely; nor are the usual variance calculations to be trusted. Here, we evaluate regression adjustments using Neyman's…

Applications · Statistics 2008-12-18 David A. Freedman
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