Related papers: Efficient estimation of copula-based semiparametri…
In this paper, we introduce a new class of models for spatial data obtained from max-convolution processes based on indicator kernels with random shape. We show that this class of models have appealing dependence properties including tail…
We suggest an iterative approach to computing K-step maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) of the parametric components in semiparametric models based on their profile likelihoods. The higher order convergence rate of K-step MLE mainly depends…
A common object to describe the extremal dependence of a $d$-variate random vector $X$ is the stable tail dependence function $L$. Various parametric models have emerged, with a popular subclass consisting of those stable tail dependence…
Estimating copulas with discrete marginal distributions is challenging, especially in high dimensions, because computing the likelihood contribution of each observation requires evaluating $2^{J}$ terms, with $J$ the number of discrete…
We propose a new copula model for replicated multivariate spatial data. Unlike classical models that assume multivariate normality of the data, the proposed copula is based on the assumption that some factors exist that affect the joint…
Constructions of numerous approximate sampling algorithms are based on the well-known fact that certain Gibbs measures are stationary distributions of ergodic stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by the Brownian motion. However,…
Markov processes are used in a wide range of disciplines, including finance. The transition densities of these processes are often unknown. However, the conditional characteristic functions are more likely to be available, especially for…
Accurately quantifying tail risks-rare but high-impact events such as financial crashes or extreme weather-is a central challenge in risk management, with serially dependent data. We develop a Bayesian framework based on the Generalized…
Multi-state models are commonly used for intermittent observations of a state over time, but these are generally based on the Markov assumption, that transition rates are independent of the time spent in current and previous states. In a…
Many time series applications require access to multi-step forecast trajectories in the form of sample paths. Recently, time series foundation models have leveraged multi-step lookahead predictions to improve the quality and efficiency of…
Given a random sample from a continuous multivariate distribution, Stute's representation is obtained for empirical copula processes constructed from a broad class of smooth, possibly data-adaptive nonparametric copula estimators. The…
Simplified vine copulas are flexible tools over standard multivariate distributions for modeling and understanding different dependence properties in high-dimensional data. Their conditional distributions are of utmost importance, from…
We introduce a Markov-functional approach to construct local volatility models that are calibrated to a discrete set of marginal distributions. The method is inspired by and extends the volatility interpolation of Bass (1983) and Conze and…
Copula-based time series models can model univariate and stationary time series in a flexible way by decomposing the joint distribution of consecutive observations into a copula and the stationary distribution. Implicitly this approach…
We introduce a new embarrassingly parallel parameter learning algorithm for Markov random fields with untied parameters which is efficient for a large class of practical models. Our algorithm parallelizes naturally over cliques and, for…
We discuss nonparametric estimators of the distribution of the incubation time of a disease. The classical approach in these models is to use parametric families like Weibull, log-normal or gamma in the estimation procedure. We analyze…
A factor copula model is proposed in which factors are either simulable or estimable from exogenous information. Point estimation and inference are based on a simulated methods of moments (SMM) approach with non-overlapping simulation…
Non-random sample selection is a commonplace amongst many empirical studies and it appears when an output variable of interest is available only for a restricted non-random sub-sample of data. We introduce an extension of the generalized…
We study the large sample properties of sparse M-estimators in the presence of pseudo-observations. Our framework covers a broad class of semi-parametric copula models, for which the marginal distributions are unknown and replaced by their…
Stable distributions provide a flexible framework for modeling heavy-tailed and skewed data, with the stability index $\alpha$ quantifying tail heaviness. We propose a new semiparametric estimator for $\alpha$ that leverages the two-sum…