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Finite state space hidden Markov models are flexible tools to model phenomena with complex time dependencies: any process distribution can be approximated by a hidden Markov model with enough hidden states.We consider the problem of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-16 Luc Lehéricy

Markov regime switching models have been widely used in numerous empirical applications in economics and finance. However, the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) has not been proven for some empirically…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-29 Hiroyuki Kasahara , Katsumi Shimotsu

Building higher-dimensional copulas is generally recognized as a difficult problem. Regular-vines using bivariate copulas provide a flexible class of high-dimensional dependency models. In large dimensions, the drawback of the model is the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-06-07 Edith Kovacs , Tamas Szantai

Numerous approaches are proposed in the literature for non-stationarity marginal extreme value inference, including different model parameterisations with respect to covariate, and different inference schemes. The objective of this article…

Applications · Statistics 2022-02-16 Matthew Jones , David Randell , Kevin Ewans , Philip Jonathan

Most common parametric families of copulas are totally ordered, and in many cases they are also positively or negatively regression dependent and therefore they lead to monotone regression functions, which makes them not suitable for…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-28 Arturo Erdely

The present article is devoted to the semi-parametric estimation of multivariate expectiles for extreme levels. The considered multivariate risk measures also include the possible conditioning with respect to a functional covariate,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-30 Elena Di Bernardino , Thomas Laloë , Cambyse Pakzad

This paper presents a robust method for estimating copula models to evaluate dependence between failure modes in one-shot devices-systems designed for single use and destroyed upon activation. Traditional approaches, such as maximum…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-25 E. Castilla , P. J. Chocano

The omnipotence of copulas when modeling dependence given marg\-inal distributions in a multivariate stochastic situation is assured by the Sklar's theorem. Montes et al.\ (2015) suggest the notion of what they call an \emph{imprecise…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-29 Matjaž Omladič , Damjan Škulj

In this work, we revisit the estimation of the model parameters of a Weibull distribution based on iid observations, using the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method which does not yield closed expressions of the estimators. Among other…

Computation · Statistics 2025-01-22 Buu-Chau Truong , Peter Mphekgwana , Nabendu Pal

Consider a parametrized family of general hidden Markov models, where both the observed and unobserved components take values in a complete separable metric space. We prove that the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the parameter is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-03-10 Randal Douc , Eric Moulines , Jimmy Olsson , Ramon van Handel

This paper investigates the Gaussian quasi-likelihood estimation of an exponentially ergodic multidimensional Markov process, which is expressed as a solution to a L\'{e}vy driven stochastic differential equation whose coefficients are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-08-14 Hiroki Masuda

Interval-censored multi-state data arise in many studies of chronic diseases, where the health status of a subject can be characterized by a finite number of disease states and the transition between any two states is only known to occur…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-19 Yu Gu , Donglin Zeng , Gerardo Heiss , D. Y. Lin

The cumulative incidence is the probability of failure from the cause of interest over a certain time period in the presence of other risks. A semiparametric regression model proposed by Fine and Gray (1999) has become the method of choice…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-03-02 Lu Mao , D. Y. Lin

We consider Markov models of stochastic processes where the next-step conditional distribution is defined by a kernel density estimator (KDE), similar to Markov forecast densities and certain time-series bootstrap schemes. The KDE Markov…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-31 Gustav Eje Henter , Arne Leijon , W. Bastiaan Kleijn

Analysing dependent risks is an important task for insurance companies. A dependency is reflected in the fact that information about one random variable provides information about the likely distribution of values of another random…

Applications · Statistics 2021-03-22 Sen Hu , Adrian O'Hagan

Cross-sectional observations from a dynamical system can be modeled via steady-state distributions of Markov processes. The major challenge is then to determine whether the process parameters can be identified and estimated from the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-19 Cecilie Olesen Recke , Niels Richard Hansen

The empirical copula process plays a central role for statistical inference on copulas. Recently, Segers (2011) investigated the asymptotic behavior of this process under non-restrictive smoothness assumptions for the case of i.i.d. random…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-11-14 Axel Bücher , Stanislav Volgushev

Copulas are essential tools in statistics and probability theory, enabling the study of the dependence structure between random variables independently of their marginal distributions. Among the various types of copulas, Ratio-Type Copulas…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-21 Ziad Adwan , Nicola Sottocornola

Vine copulas are a type of multivariate dependence model, composed of a collection of bivariate copulas that are combined according to a specific underlying graphical structure. Their flexibility and practicality in moderate and high…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-19 Emma S. Simpson , Jennifer L. Wadsworth , Jonathan A. Tawn

We consider the problem of estimating the parameters of a non-stationary Hawkes process with time-dependent reproduction rate and baseline intensity. Our approach relies on the standard maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), coinciding with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-04 Thomas Deschatre , Pierre Gruet , Antoine Lotz