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The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) of stratospheric winds is the most striking example of mean-flow generation and reversal by the non-linear interactions of internal waves. Previous studies have used an idealized monochromatic forcing to…
There is a growing interest in the climate community to improve the prediction of high impact climate events, for instance ENSO (El-Ni{\~n}o-Southern Oscillation) or extreme events, using a combination of model and observation data. In this…
Global climate changes are related to the ocean's store of carbon. We study a carbonate system of the upper ocean, which has metastable and oscillatory regimes, under small random fluctuations. We calculate the most probable transition path…
We report on self-induced switchings between multiple distinct space--time patterns in the dynamics of a spatially extended excitable system. These switchings between low-amplitude oscillations, nonlinear waves, and extreme events strongly…
The winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) modulates East Asian climate and the East/Japan Sea (EJS), yet local, scale-dependent air-sea couplings linking atmosphere, ocean and sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) remain unclear. Using 30 years…
Many Sun-like stars are observed to host close-in super-Earths (SEs) as part of a multi-planetary system. In such a system, the spin of the SE evolves due to spin-orbit resonances and tidal dissipation. In the absence of tides, the planet's…
The variations of water density and thermal conductivity of the oceans cold region waters according to their salinity lead to suggest an hypothesis of an oscillating climate between two extreme positions: a maximum of hot temperatures and a…
Interannual variability in the Southern Ocean is investigated via nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis (NLSA), an objective eigendecomposition technique for nonlinear dynamical systems that can simultaneously recover multiple timescales…
Tropical cyclones (TCs), driven by heat exchange between the air and sea, pose a substantial risk to many communities around the world. Accurate characterization of the subsurface ocean thermal response to TC passage is crucial for accurate…
Collective temporal organization in complex systems is commonly attributed to synchronization, resonance, or proximity to dynamical instabilities. Here we identify a distinct mechanism by which coherent, synchronization-like behavior can…
Multistability is a ubiquitous feature in systems of geophysical relevance and provides key challenges for our ability to predict a system's response to perturbations. Near critical transitions small causes can lead to large effects and -…
Using simulations with a whole-atmosphere chemistry-climate model nudged by meteorological analyses, global satellite observations of nitrogen oxide (NO) and water vapour by the Sub-Millimetre Radiometer instrument (SMR), of temperature by…
The metastable behavior of a kinetic Ising--like ferromagnetic model system in which a generic type of microscopic disorder induces nonequilibrium steady states is studied by computer simulation and a mean--field approach. We pay attention,…
Study of dynamical systems using partial state observation is an important problem due to its applicability to many real-world systems. We address the problem by studying an echo state network (ESN) framework with partial state input with…
A theoretical framework is developed for understanding the transient growth and propagation characteristics of thermodynamically coupled, meridional mode-like structures in the tropics. The model consists of a Gill-Matsuno type steady…
Dominant modes of SST in the west and east Pacific show strong but regionally different gradients caused by waves, internal dynamics, and anthropogenic warming, which drives air-sea interaction in the Pacific. The study discusses the…
The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of equatorial winds on Earth is the clearest example of the spontaneous emergence of a periodic phenomenon in geophysical fluids. In recent years, observations have revealed intriguing disruptions of…
The Late Pleistocene Antarctic temperature variation curve is decomposed into two components: cyclic and high frequency, stochastic. For each of these components, a mathematical model is developed which shows that the cyclic and stochastic…
The low-frequency variability of the mid-latitude atmosphere involves complex nonlinear and chaotic dynamical processes posing predictability challenges. It is characterized by sporadically recurring, often long-lived patterns of…
A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979-2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the…