Related papers: El Nino Southern Oscillation as Sporadic Oscillati…
Modeling globally averaged information on climate forcing from the land surface temperature data, the sea surface temperatures (SST) and the empirically determined relationship between the changes in SST and the turbulent diffusion of heat…
El Ni\~{n}o is a typical example of a coupled atmosphere--ocean phenomenon, but it is unclear whether it can be described quantitatively by a correlation between relevant climate events. To provide clarity on this issue, we developed a…
The spatial pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) plays a central role in shaping the climate system, yet the influence of land surface temperature (LST) remains poorly understood. Using a state-of-the-art coupled ocean--land--atmosphere…
Recent studies have shown that deep learning (DL) models can skillfully predict the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts over 1.5 years ahead. However, concerns regarding the reliability of predictions made by DL methods persist,…
The coupled atmosphere-ocean variability of the Indo-Pacific on interannual to multidecadal timescales is investigated in a millennial control run of CCSM4 and in observations using a family of modes recovered in Part~I of this work from…
Annual North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) counts are frequently modeled as a Poisson process with a state-dependent rate. We provide a lower bound on the forecasting error of this class of models. Remarkably we find that this bound is…
Many physical and biological systems exhibit intrinsic cyclic dynamics that are altered by random external perturbations. We examine continuous-time autonomous dynamical systems exhibiting a stable limit cycle, perturbed by additive…
Internal modes of climate variability, such as El Ni\~no and the North Atlantic Oscillation, can have strong influences upon distant weather patterns, effects that are referred to as "teleconnections". The extent to which anthropogenic…
We consider the numerical approximation of stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) based models for a quasi-periodic climate pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean known as El Ni\~no phenomenon. We show that for these models the…
We propose a new mechanism for pattern formation based on the global alternation of two dynamics neither of which exhibits patterns. When driven by either one of the separate dynamics, the system goes to a spatially homogeneous state…
Spatio-temporal data and processes are prevalent across a wide variety of scientific disciplines. These processes are often characterized by nonlinear time dynamics that include interactions across multiple scales of spatial and temporal…
El Ni\~{n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the significant climate phenomena, which appears periodically in the tropic Pacific. The intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere Zebiak-Cane (ZC) model is the first and classical one designed…
Paleoclimate proxies reveal abrupt transitions of the North Atlantic climate during past glacial intervals known as Dansgaard--Oeschger (DO) events. A central feature of DO events is a sudden warming of about 10$^{\circ}$C in Greenland…
Many physical, chemical and biological processes rely on intrinsic oscillations to employ resonance responses to external stimuli of certain frequency. Such resonance phenomena in biological systems are typically explained by one of two…
This is the last part of four series papers, aiming at stabilization for signal-input-signaloutput (SISO) linear finite-dimensional systems corrupted by general input disturbances. A new observer, referred to as Extended Dynamics Observer…
Here we present a simple stochastic threshold model consisting of a deterministic slowly decaying term and a fast stochastic noise term. The process shows a pseudo-resonance, in the sense that for small and large intensities of the noise…
Models incorporating delay have been frequently used to understand climate variability phenomena, but often the delay is introduced through an ad-hoc physical reasoning, such as the propagation time of waves. In this paper, the Mori-Zwanzig…
Existing methods for diagnosing predictability in climate indices often make a number of unjustified assumptions about the climate system that can lead to misleading conclusions. We present a flexible family of state-space models capable of…
The interplay between activity and elasticity often found in active and living systems triggers a plethora of autonomous behaviors ranging from self-assembly and collective motion to actuation. Amongst these, spontaneous self-oscillations…
This paper proposes a novel framework for enhancing the prediction accuracy and lead time of El Ni\~no events, crucial for mitigating their global climatic, economic, and societal impacts. Traditional prediction models often rely on oceanic…