Related papers: Uniform convergence for complex $[\mathbf{0,1}]$-m…
We give a bare-hands approach to the martingale representation theorem for integer valued random measures, which allows for a wide class of infinite activity jump processes, as well as all processes with well-ordered jumps.
Uncertainty quantification is essential in decision-making, especially when joint distributions of random variables are involved. While conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, it…
We construct families of rational functions $f \colon \bP^1_k \to \bP^1_k$ of degree $d \geq 2$ over a perfect field $k$ whose associated fixed-point processes fail to be martingales. Conversely, for any normal variety $X \subset…
We derive theorems which outline explicit mechanisms by which anomalous scaling for the probability density function of the sum of many correlated random variables asymptotically prevails. The results characterize general anomalous scaling…
A sufficient condition for the uniform modulus of continuity of a random field $X = \{X(t), t \in \R^N\}$ is provided. The result is applicable to random fields with heavy-tailed distribution such as stable random fields.
For a measure preserving transformation $T$ of a probability space $(X,\mathcal F,\mu)$ we investigate almost sure and distributional convergence of random variables of the form $$x \to \frac{1}{C_n} \sum_{i_1<n,...,i_d<n}…
Time to event outcomes are often evaluated on the hazard scale, but interpreting hazards may be difficult. Recently, there has been concern in the causal inference literature that hazards actually have a built in selection-effect that…
Trading a financial asset pushes its price as well as the prices of other assets, a phenomenon known as cross-impact. We consider a general class of kernel-based cross-impact models and investigate suitable parameterisations for trading…
A randomised trapezoidal quadrature rule is proposed for continuous functions which enjoys less regularity than commonly required. Indeed, we consider functions in some fractional Sobolev space. Various error bounds for this randomised rule…
This paper presents the nonparametric inference for nonlinear volatility functionals of general multivariate It\^o semimartingales, in high-frequency and noisy setting. Pre-averaging and truncation enable simultaneous handling of noise and…
New results on uniform convergence in probability for the most general classes of wavelet expansions of stationary Gaussian random processes are given.
The long-term behavior of a supercritical branching random walk can be described and analyzed with the help of Biggins' martingales, parametrized by real or complex numbers. The study of these martingales with complex parameters is a rather…
Under the formalism of annealed averaging of the partition function, a type of random multifractal measures with their multipliers satisfying exponentially distributed is investigated in detail. Branching emerges in the curve of generalized…
We consider a discrete-time process adapted to some filtration which lives on a (typically countable) subset of $\mathbb{R}^d$, $d\geq 2$. For this process, we assume that it has uniformly bounded jumps, is uniformly elliptic (can advance…
Conformal inference is a fundamental and versatile tool that provides distribution-free guarantees for many machine learning tasks. We consider the transductive setting, where decisions are made on a test sample of $m$ new points, giving…
We provide a categorical proof of convergence for martingales and backward martingales in mean, using enriched category theory. The enrichment we use is in topological spaces, with their canonical closed monoidal structure, which encodes a…
Marginal expected shortfall is unquestionably one of the most popular systemic risk measures. Studying its extreme behaviour is particularly relevant for risk protection against severe global financial market downturns. In this context,…
Let $\mm_n, n=0,1,...$ be the supercritical branching random walk, in which the number of direct descendants of one individual may be infinite with positive probability. Assume that the standard martingale $W_n$ related to $\mm_n$ is…
We analyze in full mathematical rigor the most general quartically perturbed invariant probability measure for a random tensor. Using a version of the Loop Vertex Expansion (which we call the mixed expansion) we show that the cumulants…
This paper is concerned with asymptotic behavior of a variety of functionals of increments of continuous semimartingales. Sampling times are assumed to follow a rather general discretization scheme. If an underlying semimartingale is…