Related papers: Epidemic modelling: aspects where stochasticity ma…
The interplay of seasonality, the system's nonlinearities and intrinsic stochasticity is studied for a seasonally forced susceptible-exposed-infective-recovered stochastic model. The model is explored in the parameter region that…
Epidemics are inherently stochastic, and stochastic models provide an appropriate way to describe and analyse such phenomena. Given temporal incidence data consisting of, for example, the number of new infections or removals in a given time…
Global strategies to contain a pandemic, such as social distancing and protective measures, are designed to reduce the overall transmission rate between individuals. Despite such measures, essential institutions, including hospitals,…
Seasonal variations in the incidence of infectious diseases are a well-established phenomenon, driven by factors such as climate changes, social behaviors, and ecological interactions that influence host susceptibility and transmission…
In the simple mean-field SIS and SIR epidemic models, infection is transmitted from infectious to susceptible members of a finite population by independent $p-$coin tosses. Spatial variants of these models are proposed, in which finite…
Intuitively, sampling is likely to be more efficient for prevalence estimation, if the cases (or positives) have a relatively higher representation in the sample than in the population. In case the virus is transmitted via personal…
Our chances to halt epidemic outbreaks rely on how accurately we represent the population structure underlying the disease spread. When analyzing global epidemics this force us to consider metapopulation models taking into account intra-…
We study the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) infectious diseases where an individual's infectiousness and probability of recovery depend on his/her "age" of infection. We focus first on early outbreak stages when stochastic…
To understand the contact patterns of a population -- who is in contact with whom, and when the contacts happen -- is crucial for modeling outbreaks of infectious disease. Traditional theoretical epidemiology assumes that any individual can…
Compartmental models are valuable tools for investigating infectious diseases. Researchers building such models typically begin with a simple structure where compartments correspond to individuals with different epidemiological statuses,…
At the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, a number of non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented in order to reduce transmission, thus leading to multiple phases of transmission. The disease reproduction number $R_t$, a way of…
The effect of public health interventions on an epidemic are often estimated by adding the intervention to epidemic models. During the Covid-19 epidemic, numerous papers used such methods for making scenario predictions. The majority of…
Traditional disease transmission models assume that the infectious period is exponentially distributed with a recovery rate fixed in time and across individuals. This assumption provides analytical and computational advantages, however it…
We analyze four models of epidemic spreading using a stochastic approach in which the primary stochastic variables are the numbers of individuals in each class. The stochastic approach is described by a master equation and the transition…
Mathematical models of epidemics often use compartmental models dividing the population into several compartments. Based on a microscopic setting describing the temporal evolution of the subpopulation sizes in the compartments by stochastic…
Stochasticity and spatial heterogeneity are of great interest recently in studying the spread of an infectious disease. The presented method solves an inverse problem to discover the effectively decisive topology of a heterogeneous network…
In this work, we review the figures used to characterize an epidemic outbreak most. Particular attention is drawn to epidemic spreading at time-varying transition rates. A time-varying SIR-like model is used to describe the epidemic…
These notes describe stochastic epidemics in a homogenous community. Our main concern is stochastic compartmental models (i.e. models where each individual belongs to a compartment, which stands for its status regarding the epidemic under…
As an emergent infectious disease outbreak unfolds, public health response is reliant on information on key epidemiological quantities, such as transmission potential and serial interval. Increasingly, transmission models fit to incidence…
Many models of epidemic spread have a common qualitative structure. The numbers of infected individuals during the initial stages of an epidemic can be well approximated by a branching process, after which the proportion of individuals that…