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Human behavior plays a critical role in shaping epidemic trajectories. During health crises, people respond in diverse ways in terms of self-protection and adherence to recommended measures, largely reflecting differences in how individuals…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-01-30 Fabio Mazza , Gabriele Ricci , Francesca Colaiori , Stefano Guarino , Sandro Meloni , Fabio Saracco

This paper focuses on the analysis of a stochastic SAIRS-type epidemic model that explicitly incorporates the roles of asymptomatic and symptomatic infectious individuals in disease transmission dynamics. Asymptomatic carriers, often…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-01-14 Brahim Boukanjime , Mohamed El Fatini , Mohamed Maama

The use of network theory to model disease propagation on populations introduces important elements of reality to the classical epidemiological models. The use of random geometric graphs (RGG) is one of such network models that allows for…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-12-21 Ernesto Estrada , Sandro Meloni , Matthew Sheerin , Yamir Moreno

Adaptive-network models are typically studied using deterministic differential equations which approximately describe their dynamics. In simulations, however, the discrete nature of the network gives rise to intrinsic noise which can…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2012-09-04 Tim Rogers , William Clifford-Brown , Catherine Mills , Tobias Galla

Computational models for the simulation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic evolution would be extremely useful to support authorities in designing healthcare policies and lockdown measures to…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-04-20 Marco Paggi

We investigate the avalanche temporal statistics of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model when the dynamics is critical and takes place on finite random networks. By considering numerical simulations on annealed topologies we…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-02-23 Daniele Notarmuzi , Alessandro Flammini , Claudio Castellano , Filippo Radicchi

Since the outbreak of COVID-19, an astronomical number of publications on the pandemic dynamics appeared in the literature, of which many use the susceptible infected removed (SIR) and susceptible exposed infected removed (SEIR) models, or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-03 Hua-Liang Wei , S. A. Billings

We adopt a maximum-likelihood framework to estimate parameters of a stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with contact tracing on a rooted random tree. Given the number of detectees per index case, our estimator allows to…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-11-23 Augustine Okolie , Johannes Müller , Mirjam Kretzschmar

We study the dynamics of secondary infections on networks, in which only the individuals currently carrying a certain primary infection are susceptible to the secondary infection. In the limit of large sparse networks, the model is mapped…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-23 Sam Moore , Peter Mörters , Tim Rogers

The susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model has been used extensively to model disease spread and other processes. Despite the widespread usage of this ordinary differential equation (ODE) based model which represents the mean-field…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2016-12-28 Ekkehard Beck , Benjamin Armbruster

The epidemic spreading has been widely studied when each node may get infected by an infected neighbor with the same rate. However, the infection rate between a pair of nodes is usually heterogeneous and even correlated with their nodal…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-02-01 Bo Qu , Huijuan Wang

We consider an epidemic model of SIR type set on a homogeneous tree and investigate the spreading properties of the epidemic as a function of the degree of the tree, the intrinsic basic reproduction number and the strength of the…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2021-06-09 Christophe Besse , Grégory Faye

The SIRS process is a continuous-time process for how infections spread on a graph. In this model, each vertex is in one of the following three states: susceptible (to the infection; S), infected (I), or recovered (R) and thus immune to the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-20 Andreas Göbel , Nicolas Klodt , Martin S. Krejca

This paper deals with the statistical signal pro- cessing over graphs for tracking infection diffusion in social networks. Infection (or Information) diffusion is modeled using the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model. Mean field…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2016-11-01 Vikram Krishnamurthy , Sujay Bhatt , Tavis Pedersen

Models of epidemics over networks have become popular, as they describe the impact of individual behavior on infection spread. However, they come with high computational complexity, which constitutes a problem in case large-scale scenarios…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-10 Davide Zorzenon , Fabio Molinari , Joerg Raisch

This paper is concerned with the robustness of the sustained oscillations predicted by an epidemic ODE model defined on contact networks. The model incorporates the spread of awareness among individuals and, moreover, a small inflow of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-11-11 David Juher , David Rojas , Joan Saldaña

This article is devoted to the analysis of a particle system model for epidemics among a finite population with susceptible, infective and removed individuals (SIR). The infection mechanism depends on the relative distance between…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-03-10 Monia Capanna

To improve the accuracy of network-based SIS models we introduce and study a multilayer representation of a time-dependent network. In particular, we assume that individuals have their long-term (permanent) contacts that are always present,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-12-13 Aram Vajdi , David Juher , Joan Saldana , Caterina Scoglio

We develop a theory for the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model on networks that incorporate both network structure and dynamic correlations. This theory can account for the multistage onset of the epidemic phase in…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-04-07 Chao-Ran Cai , Zhi-Xi Wu , Petter Holme

The contact process is an emblematic model of a non-equilibrium system, containing a phase transition between inactive and active dynamical regimes. In the epidemiological context, the model is known as the susceptible-infected-susceptible…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-05-12 Wout Merbis , Clélia de Mulatier , Philippe Corboz
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