Related papers: Understanding Terrorist Organizations with a Dynam…
The n-person Prisoner's Dilemma is a widely used model for populations where individuals interact in groups. The evolutionary stability of populations has been analysed in the literature for the case where mutations in the population may be…
Self-organisation of individuals within large collectives occurs throughout biology. Mathematical models can help elucidate the individual-level mechanisms behind these dynamics, but analytical tractability often comes at the cost of…
We present and analyze a model of the frequency of severe terrorist attacks, which generalizes the recently proposed model of Johnson et al. This model, which is based on the notion of self-organized criticality and which describes how…
Coordinated human behaviour takes place within a diverse range of social organisational structures, which can be thought of as power structures with "managers" who influence "subordinates". A change in policy in one part of the organisation…
[Spreadsheet] Models are invaluable tools for strategic planning. Models help key decision makers develop a shared conceptual understanding of complex decisions, identify sensitivity factors and test management scenarios. Different…
The stability of a leadership against a growing internal opposition is studied in bottom-up hierarchical organizations. Using a very simple model with bottom-up majority rule voting, the dynamics of power distribution at the various…
We here discuss a model of continuous opinion dynamics in which agents adjust continuous opinions as a result of random binary encounters whenever their difference in opinion is below a given threshold. We concentrate on the version of the…
In the last 20 years, terrorism has led to hundreds of thousands of deaths and massive economic, political, and humanitarian crises in several regions of the world. Using real-world data on attacks occurred in Afghanistan and Iraq from 2001…
Based on a dynamical model with fractional derivatives we show that the evolution of radical groups in a society with a memory depends mainly on the active proselytism of radical groups and the level of cohesion in social networks. We find…
Epidemic models study the spread of an undesired agent through a population, be it infectious diseases through a country, misinformation in online social media, or pests infesting a region. In combating these epidemics, we rely neither on…
Solving cybersecurity issues requires a holistic understanding of components, factors, structures and their interactions in cyberspace, but conventional modeling approaches view the field of cybersecurity by their boundaries so that we are…
We propose a discrete model for how opinion about a given phenomenon, about which various groups of a population have different degrees of enthusiasm, such as fanaticism and extreme social and political positions, including terrorism, may…
From some observations on economic behaviors, in particular changing economic conditions with time and space, we develop a very simple model for the evolution of economic entities within a geographical type of framework. We raise a few…
Increased interconnectivity of Cyber-Physical Systems, by design or otherwise, increases the cyber attack surface and attack vectors. Observing the effects of these attacks is helpful in detecting them. In this paper, we show that many…
Terrorists use violence in pursuit of political goals. While terror often has severe consequences for victims, it remains an open question how terror attacks affect the general population. We study the behavioral response of citizens of…
An attempt is made to quantitatively demonstrate the difference between a complex adaptive combat model and conventional combat models. The work shows that complex adaptive models may give rise to "turbulent" dynamics, which emerge once the…
In cyberspace, evolutionary strategies are commonly used by both attackers and defenders. For example, an attacker's strategy often changes over the course of time, as new vulnerabilities are discovered and/or mitigated. Similarly, a…
Our research is concerned with studying behavioural changes within a dynamic system, i.e. health care, and their effects on the decision-making process. Evolutionary Game theory is applied to investigate the most probable strategy(ies)…
Resilience denotes the capacity of a system to withstand shocks and its ability to recover from them. We develop a framework to quantify the resilience of highly volatile, non-equilibrium social organizations, such as collectives or…
The dynamics of political opinion are a critical component of modern society with large-scale implications for the evolution of intra- and international political discourse and policy. Here we utilize recent high-resolution survey data to…