Related papers: Understanding Terrorist Organizations with a Dynam…
The conflicts between armed groups often go on for years. The classical model of such conflicts accounts for the number of participants and for the technology level of the equipment of the groups. Below we extend this model in order to…
Decision makers are often confronted with complex tasks which cannot be solved by an individual alone, but require collaboration in the form of a coalition. Previous literature argues that instability, in terms of the re-organization of a…
The spread of radical ideologies is a key to fanaticism, recruitment and terrorist activities. Hence, preventing such activities requires predictive models capable of identifying areas and agents before occurrence of catastrophic terrorist…
The population protocol model describes collections of distributed agents that interact in pairs to solve a common task. We consider a dynamic variant of this prominent model, where we assume that an adversary may change the population size…
We here present a model of the dynamics of extremism based on opinion dynamics in order to understand the circumstances which favour its emergence and development in large fractions of the general public. Our model is based on the bounded…
Many successful terrorist groups operate across international borders where different countries host different stages of terrorist operations. Often the recruits for the group come from one country or countries, while the targets of the…
We present a two-level model of organizational training and agent production. Managers decide whether or not to train based on both the costs of training compared to the benefits and on their expectations and observations of the number of…
In this study, basketball teams are conceptualized as complex adaptive systems to examine their (re)organizational processes in response the time remaining to shoot. Using temporal passing networks to model team behavior, the focus is on…
A primary goal of social science research is to understand how latent group memberships predict the dynamic process of network evolution. In the modeling of international militarized conflicts, for instance, scholars hypothesize that…
Evaluating robustness under temporal distribution shift remains an open challenge. Existing metrics quantify the average decline in performance, but fail to capture how models adapt to evolving data. As a result, temporal degradation is…
I present a unified discussion of several recently published results concerning the escalation, timing and severity of violent events in human conflicts and global terrorism, and set them in the wider context of real-world and cyber-based…
Usually gradual and continuous changes in entities will lead to appear events. But usually it is supposed that an event is occurred at once. In this research an integrated framework called continuous occurrence theory (COT) is presented to…
Human groups show a variety of leadership structures from no leader, to changing leaders, to a single long-term leader. When a leader is deposed, the presence of a power vacuum can mean they are often quickly replaced. We lack an…
There is a lack of quantitative measures to evaluate the progression of topics through time in dynamic topic models (DTMs). Filling this gap, we propose a novel evaluation measure for DTMs that analyzes the changes in the quality of each…
Detecting changepoints in datasets with many variates is a data science challenge of increasing importance. Motivated by the problem of detecting changes in the incidence of terrorism from a global terrorism database, we propose a novel…
We develop flexible multivariate spatio-temporal Hawkes process models to analyze patterns of terrorism. Previous applications of point process methods to political violence data mainly utilize temporal Hawkes process models, neglecting…
Economic competition and deregulation have led to a polarization of societies between a small, increasingly powerful elite and a majority of socially excluded individuals, marginalized and unconnected to political representations. This is…
A simple model for simulating tug of war game as varying the player number in a team is discussed to identify the slow pace of fast change. This model shows that a large number of information sources leads slow change for the system. Also,…
Economic transformation -- change in what an economy produces -- is foundational to development and rising standards of living. Our understanding of this process has been propelled recently by two branches of work in the field of economic…
A society of agents, with ideological positions, or "opinions" measured by real values ranging from $-\infty$ (the "far left") to $+\infty$ (the "far right"), is considered. At fixed (unit) time intervals agents repeatedly reconsider and…