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We deal with a mechanism of generating distributional chaos in planar nonautonomous ODEs and try to measure chaosity in terms of topological entropy. It is based on the interplay between simple periodic solutions. We prove the existence of…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-10-03 Paweł Wilczyński

In the field of structural reliability, the Monte-Carlo estimator is considered as the reference probability estimator. However, it is still untractable for real engineering cases since it requires a high number of runs of the model. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-19 V. Dubourg , F. Deheeger , B. Sudret

The aim of this paper is to describe a new an integrated methodology for project control under uncertainty. This proposal is based on Earned Value Methodology and risk analysis and presents several refinements to previous methodologies.…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-06-06 Fernando Acebes , M Pereda , David Poza , Javier Pajares , Jose M Galan

We have developed a novel Monte Carlo method for simulating the dynamical evolution of stellar systems in arbitrary geometry. The orbits of stars are followed in a smooth potential represented by a basis-set expansion and perturbed after…

Astrophysics of Galaxies · Physics 2014-12-04 Eugene Vasiliev

A sampling procedure for the transition matrix Monte Carlo method is introduced that generates the density of states function over a wide parameter range with minimal coding effort.

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-03-23 David Yevick

This paper develops a novel sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approach for joint state and parameter estimation that can deal efficiently with abruptly changing parameters which is a common case when tracking maneuvering targets. The approach…

Computation · Statistics 2015-10-12 Christopher Nemeth , Paul Fearnhead , Lyudmila Mihaylova

In this paper, a new polynomial chaos based framework for analyzing linear systems with probabilistic parameters is presented. Stability analysis and synthesis of optimal quadratically stabilizing controllers for such systems are presented…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2015-03-30 Raktim Bhattacharya

The replica exchange method is a powerful tool for overcoming slow relaxation in molecular simulations, but its efficiency depends strongly on the choice of the number and interval of replicas and their exchange probabilities. Here, we…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-06-04 Akie Kowaguchi , Katsuhiro Endo , Kentaro Nomura , Shuichi Kurabayashi , Paul E. Brumby , Kenji Yasuoka

In this set of lectures, we review briefly some of the recent developments in the study of the chaotic dynamics of nonlinear oscillators, particularly of damped and driven type. By taking a representative set of examples such as the…

chao-dyn · Physics 2009-10-30 M. Lakshmanan

We use replica exchange Monte-Carlo simulations to measure the equilibrium equation of state of the disordered fluid state for a binary hard sphere mixture up to very large densities where standard Monte-Carlo simulations do not easily…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2011-02-04 Gerardo Odriozola , Ludovic Berthier

We developed a powerful computational approach to elaborate on onset mechanisms of deterministic chaos due to complex homoclinic bifurcations in diverse systems. Its core is the reduction of phase space dynamics to symbolic binary…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2018-11-07 Krishna Pusuluri , Andrey L Shilnikov

In this paper we propose a Monte Carlo method for generating finite-domain marginals of critical distributions of statistical models in infinite volume. The algorithm corrects the problem of the long-range effects of boundaries associated…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-11-09 Victor Herdeiro , Benjamin Doyon

We consider the problem of estimating rare event probabilities, focusing on systems whose evolution is governed by differential equations with uncertain input parameters. If the system dynamics is expensive to compute, standard sampling…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-05 Siddhant Wahal , George Biros

The probability distribution of the order parameter is exploited in order to obtain the criticality of magnetic systems. Monte Carlo simulations have been employed by using single spin flip Metropolis algorithm aided by finite-size scaling…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-24 P. H. L. Martins , J. A. Plascak

Discrete numerical methods with finite time-steps represent a practical technique to solve initial-value problems involving nonlinear differential equations. These methods seem particularly useful to the study of chaos since no analytical…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2010-01-01 Lun-Shin Yao

We present an algorithm for finding the probabilities of rare events in nonequilibrium processes. The algorithm consists of evolving the system with a modified dynamics for which the required event occurs more frequently. By keeping track…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2011-04-07 Anupam Kundu , Sanjib Sabhapandit , Abhishek Dhar

We present a new numerical Monte Carlo approach to determine the scaling behavior of lattice field theories far from equilibrium. The presented methods are generally applicable to systems where classical-statistical fluctuations dominate…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2013-11-19 David Mesterházy , Luca Biferale , Karl Jansen , Raffaele Tripiccione

We show that chiral order in two-dimensional nonreciprocal flocking mixtures is generically unstable. Combining large-scale agent-based simulations with a coarse-grained continuum description, we demonstrate that rotating chiral states…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2026-05-08 Charlotte Myin , Suropriya Saha , Benoît Mahault

A numerical technique is introduced that reduces exponentially the time required for Monte Carlo simulations of non-equilibrium systems. Results for the quasi-stationary probability distribution in two model systems are compared with the…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2009-11-07 A. Bandrivskyy , S. Beri , D. G. Luchinsky , R. Mannella , P. V. E. McClintock

In this article, we present an event-driven algorithm that generalizes the recent hard-sphere event-chain Monte Carlo method without introducing discretizations in time or in space. A factorization of the Metropolis filter and the concept…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-02-10 Manon Michel , Sebastian C. Kapfer , Werner Krauth