Related papers: Measure changes with extinction
For a given element $f\in L^1$ and a convex cone $C\subset L^\infty$, $C\cap L^\infty_+=\{0\}$ we give necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of an element $g\ge f$ lying in the polar of $C$. This polar is taken in…
We investigate the almost sure asymptotic properties of vector martingale transforms. Assuming some appropriate regularity conditions both on the increasing process and on the moments of the martingale, we prove that normalized moments of…
In the paper, the martingales and super-martingales relative to a convex set of equivalent measures are systematically studied. The notion of local regular super-martingale relative to a convex set of equivalent measures is introduced and…
This papers addresses the stock option pricing problem in a continuous time market model where there are two stochastic tradable assets, and one of them is selected as a num\'eraire. It is shown that the presence of arbitrarily small…
If evolution can be connected to the principle of least action, and if it is depicted in evolution space versus time then it corresponds to the direction of ultimate causation. As an organism evolves and follows a path of proximate…
In this paper, we review the basic properties of measures vanishing at infinity and prove a version of the Riemann--Lebesgue lemma for Fourier transformable measures.
This paper introduces a martingale that characterizes two properties of evolving forecast distributions. Ideal forecasts of a future event behave as martingales, sequen- tially updating the forecast to leverage the available information as…
For any discrete-time $P$--local martingale $S$ there exists a probability measure $Q \sim P$ such that $S$ is a $Q$--martingale. A new proof for this result is provided. The core idea relies on an appropriate modification of an argument by…
Given a random sample from a random variable $T$ which is bounded from above, $T\le\tau$ a.s., we define processes that are positive supermartingales if $E(T)\ge\mu$. Such processes are called test martingales. Tests of the supermartingale…
We characterize the event of convergence of a local supermartingale. Conditions are given in terms of its predictable characteristics and quadratic variation. The notion of stationarily local integrability plays a key role.
We propose a variation of the GMS model of evolution of species. In this version, as in the GMS model, at each birth, the new species in the system is labeled with a random fitness mark, but in our variation, to each extinction event is…
A strict local martingale is a local martingale which is not a martingale. There are few explicit examples of "naturally occurring" strict local martingales with jumps available in the literature. The purpose of this paper is to provide…
We prove that, for locally bounded processes, absence of arbitrage opportunities of the first kind is equivalent to the existence of a dominating local martingale measure. This is related to and motivated by results from the theory of…
Let $X$ be a $\mathbb{C}$-valued random variable with the property that $$X \ \text{ has the same law as }\ \sum_{j\ge1} T_j X_j$$ where $X_j$ are i.i.d.\ copies of $X$, which are independent of the (given) $\mathbb{C}$-valued random…
We consider a discrete-time process adapted to some filtration which lives on a (typically countable) subset of $\mathbb{R}^d$, $d\geq 2$. For this process, we assume that it has uniformly bounded jumps, is uniformly elliptic (can advance…
We consider continuous-state branching processes (CB processes) which become extinct almost surely. First, we tackle the problem of describing the stationary measures on $(0,+\infty)$ for such CB processes. We give a representation of the…
Some classes of increment martingales, and the corresponding localized classes, are studied. An increment martingale is indexed by the real line and its increment processes are martingales. We focus primarily on the behavior as time goes to…
Environmental noise can cause an exponential reduction in the mean time to extinction (MTE) of an isolated population. We study this effect on an example of a stochastic birth-death process with rates modulated by a colored Gaussian noise.…
The fitness of a biological strategy is typically measured by its expected reproductive rate, the first moment of its offspring distribution. However, strategies with high expected rates can also have high probabilities of extinction. A…
Difficulties identifying appropriate biodiversity impact metrics remain a major barrier to inclusion of biodiversity considerations in environmentally responsible investment. We propose and analyse a simple science-based local metric: the…