Related papers: Relationship between inflation, unemployment and l…
Especially in the insurance industry interest rate models play a crucial role e.g. to calculate the insurance company's liabilities, performance scenarios or risk measures. A prominant candidate is the 2-Additive-Factor Gaussian Model…
By borrowing methods from complex system analysis, in this paper we analyze the features of the complex relationship that links the development and the industrialization of a country to economic inequality. In order to do this, we identify…
This paper develops a sufficient-statistic formula for the unemployment gap -- the difference between the actual unemployment rate and the efficient unemployment rate. While lowering unemployment puts more people into work, it forces firms…
This study proposes a unified multi-stage framework to reconstruct consistent monthly and annual labor indicators for all 33 Colombian departments from 1993 to 2025. The approach integrates temporal disaggregation, time-series splicing and…
The paper analyses cointegration in vector autoregressive processes (VARs) for the cases when both the number of coordinates, $N$, and the number of time periods, $T$, are large and of the same order. We propose a way to examine a VAR of…
We analyze the forces that explain inflation using a panel of 122 countries from 1997 to 2015 with 37 regressors. 98 models motivated by economic theory are compared to a gradient boosting algorithm, non-linearities and structural breaks…
The problem of causal inference is to determine if a given probability distribution on observed variables is compatible with some causal structure. The difficult case is when the causal structure includes latent variables. We here introduce…
Historical studies of labor markets frequently lack data on individual income. The occupational income score (OCCSCORE) is often used as an alternative measure of labor market outcomes. We consider the consequences of using OCCSCORE when…
A robust thermodynamic relation between inflation corrected monetary valuation and energy emerges from existing work. This is based on the energy used, the aggregate efficiency of all production processes ($\Lambda(t)$) in terms of Joules…
Okun's law for the biggest developed countries is re-estimated using the most recent data on real GDP per capita and the rate of unemployment. Our results show that the change in unemployment rate can be predicted with a high accuracy. The…
In this paper, we consider a framework adapting the notion of cointegration when two asset prices are generated by a driftless It\^{o}-semimartingale featuring jumps with infinite activity, observed regularly and synchronously at high…
Standard methods, such as sequential procedures based on Johansen's (pseudo-)likelihood ratio (PLR) test, for determining the co-integration rank of a vector autoregressive (VAR) system of variables integrated of order one can be…
Rank-rank regression is commonly employed in economic research as a way of capturing the relationship between two economic variables. The slope of this regression is the Spearman rank correlation, a classical measure of association.…
In this paper the orthogonal impulse response functions (OIRF) are studied in the non-standard, though quite common, case where the covariance of the error vector is not constant in time. The usual approach for taking into account such…
This study uses Vector Autoregression (VAR) Methodology as well as Vector Error Correction (VEC) Methodology to examine the existence and direction of causality between economic growth and IMF lending for Ukraine. The paper examines the IMF…
Nonparametric cointegrating regression models have been extensively used in financial markets, stock prices, heavy traffic, climate data sets, and energy markets. Models with parametric regression functions can be more appealing in practice…
Do labor market policies initiated in periods of loose monetary policy yield different outcomes from those introduced when monetary tightening prevails? Using data from 11 euro-area members up to 2010 -- and extending to 17 countries up to…
The observables $T/S$ and $n-1$ are key to testing and understanding inflation. ($T$, $S$, and $n-1$ respectively quantify the gravity-wave and density-perturbation contributions to CMB anisotropy and the deviation of the density…
There are different views in the literature regarding economic growth and development. Growth and development hypotheses have been addressed from many different perspectives. It is aimed to examine the view of production with the Heavy…
We consider inflationary models with the inflaton coupled to the Gauss-Bonnet term assuming a special relation $\delta_1=2\lambda\epsilon_1$ between the two slow-roll parameters $\delta_1$ and $\epsilon_1$. For the slow-roll inflation, the…