Related papers: Relationship between inflation, unemployment and l…
This paper analyzes the empirical relationship between the inflation rate and its proximate determinants in Argentina, using quarterly data over the period 2004-2022 and an error-correction vector model approach. Unlike previous literature,…
Estimating success rates for programmes aiming to reintegrate theunemployed into the workforce is essential for good stewardship of publicfinances. At the current moment, the methods used for this task arebased on the historical performance…
Labor productivity in developed countries is analyzed and modeled. Modeling is based on our previous finding that the rate of labor force participation is a unique function of GDP per capita. Therefore, labor productivity is fully…
In the late 90's, after severe financial and economic crisis, accompanied by inflation and exchange rate instability, Eastern Europe emerged into two groups of countries with radically contrasting monetary regimes (Currency Boards and…
A semi-parametric approach is proposed to estimate the variation along time of the effects of two distinct public policies that were devoted to boost rural development in France over the same period of time. At a micro data level, it is…
This paper introduces a new spatial scan statistic designed to adjust cluster detection for longitudinal confounding factors indexed in space. The functional-model-adjusted statistic was developed using generalized functional linear models…
This research deals with the estimation and imputation of missing data in longitudinal models with a Poisson response variable inflated with zeros. A methodology is proposed that is based on the use of maximum likelihood, assuming that data…
This study explores the relationship between political stability and inflation in four South Asian countries, employing panel data spanning from 2001 to 2021. To analyze this relationship, the study utilizes the dynamic ordinary least…
As a quantitative characterization of the complicated economy, Macroeconomic Variables (MEVs), including GDP, inflation, unemployment, income, spending, interest rate, etc., are playing a crucial role in banks' portfolio management and…
We propose a test of single-scalar inflation based on using the well-measured scalar power spectrum to reconstruct the tensor power spectrum, up to a single integration constant. Our test is a sort of integrated version of the single-scalar…
This note examines the influence of covariance inflation on the distance between the measured observation and the simulated (or predicted) observation with respect to the state estimate. In order for the aforementioned distance to be…
This paper aims to reevaluate the Taylor Rule, through a linear and a nonlinear method, such that its estimated federal funds rates match those actually previously implemented by the Federal Reserve Bank. In the linear method, this paper…
In many macroeconomic applications, confidence intervals for impulse responses are constructed by estimating VAR models in levels - ignoring cointegration rank uncertainty. We investigate the consequences of ignoring this uncertainty. We…
The method of cointegration in regression analysis is based on an assumption of stationary increments. Stationary increments with fixed time lag are called integration I(d). A class of regression models where cointegration works was…
This article is an extension of the work of one of us (Coopersmith, 2011) in deriving the relationship between certain interest rates and the inflation rate of a two component economic system. We use the well-known Fisher relation between…
In this paper, I explored how a range of regression and machine learning techniques can be applied to monthly U.S. unemployment data to produce timely forecasts. I compared seven models: Linear Regression, SGDRegressor, Random Forest,…
The analysis of the effects of monetary policy shocks using the common econometric models (such as VAR or SVAR) poses several empirical anomalies. However, it is known that in these econometric models the use of a large amount of…
There is an extensive historical dataset on real GDP per capita prepared by Angus Maddison. This dataset covers the period since 1870 with continuous annual estimates in developed countries. All time series for individual economies have a…
This article discusses Shin (1994, Econometric Theory)-type tests for nonlinear cointegration in the presence of variance breaks. We build on cointegration test approaches under heteroskedasticity (Cavaliere and Taylor, 2006, Journal of…
Ideally, all analyses of normally distributed data should include the full covariance information between all data points. In practice, the full covariance matrix between all data points is not always available. Either because a result was…