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We construct a new framework for accelerating Markov chain Monte Carlo in posterior sampling problems where standard methods are limited by the computational cost of the likelihood, or of numerical models embedded therein. Our approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-06 Patrick R. Conrad , Youssef M. Marzouk , Natesh S. Pillai , Aaron Smith

We consider the efficient use of an approximation within Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), with subsequent importance sampling (IS) correction of the Markov chain inexact output, leading to asymptotically exact inference. We detail…

Computation · Statistics 2019-04-15 Jordan Franks

While the Quasi-Monte Carlo method of numerical integration achieves smaller integration error than standard Monte Carlo, its use in particle physics phenomenology has been hindered by the abscence of a reliable way to estimate that error.…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2009-11-11 R. H. Kleiss , A. Lazopoulos

For real symmetric matrices that are accessible only through matrix vector products, we present Monte Carlo estimators for computing the diagonal elements. Our probabilistic bounds for normwise absolute and relative errors apply to Monte…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-03-18 Eric Hallman , Ilse C. F. Ipsen , Arvind Saibaba

Monte Carlo approximations for random linear elliptic PDE constrained optimization problems are studied. We use empirical process theory to obtain best possible mean convergence rates $O(n^{-\frac{1}{2}})$ for optimal values and solutions,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-06-14 Werner Römisch , Thomas M. Surowiec

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a widely used set of computational tools for inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. We propose a new SMC algorithm to compute the expectation of additive functionals recursively.…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-12-27 Pierre Del Moral , Arnaud Doucet , Sumeetpal Singh

Variational Monte Carlo (VMC) is an approach for computing ground-state wavefunctions that has recently become more powerful due to the introduction of neural network-based wavefunction parametrizations. However, efficiently training neural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-03 Robert J. Webber , Michael Lindsey

This paper studies the mixing time of certain adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms. Under some regularity conditions, we show that the convergence rate of Importance Resampling MCMC (IRMCMC) algorithm, measured in terms of the total…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-29 Yves Atchadé , Yizao Wang

This article considers the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approximation of ratios of normalizing constants associated to posterior distributions which in principle rely on continuum models. Therefore, the Monte Carlo estimation error and the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-03-04 Pierre Del Moral , Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Yan Zhou

We consider the problem of estimating expectations with respect to a target distribution with an unknown normalizing constant, and where even the unnormalized target needs to be approximated at finite resolution. Under such an assumption,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-06-29 Xinzhu Liang , Shangda Yang , Simon L. Cotter , Kody J. H. Law

Orthogonal Monte Carlo (OMC) is a very effective sampling algorithm imposing structural geometric conditions (orthogonality) on samples for variance reduction. Due to its simplicity and superior performance as compared to its Quasi Monte…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-29 Han Lin , Haoxian Chen , Tianyi Zhang , Clement Laroche , Krzysztof Choromanski

In this work, we propose a smart idea to couple importance sampling and Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). We advocate a per level approach with as many importance sampling parameters as the number of levels, which enables us to compute the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-07-10 Ahmed Kebaier , Jérôme Lelong

This paper concerns the use of sequential Monte Carlo methods (SMC) for smoothing in general state space models. A well-known problem when applying the standard SMC technique in the smoothing mode is that the resampling mechanism introduces…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-03-06 Jimmy Olsson , Olivier Cappé , Randal Douc , Eric Moulines

Monte Carlo methods are used to approximate the means, $\mu$, of random variables $Y$, whose distributions are not known explicitly. The key idea is that the average of a random sample, $Y_1, ..., Y_n$, tends to $\mu$ as $n$ tends to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-01-16 Fred J. Hickernell , Lan Jiang , Yuewei Liu , Art Owen

We propose Subsampling MCMC, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework where the likelihood function for $n$ observations is estimated from a random subset of $m$ observations. We introduce a highly efficient unbiased estimator of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-31 Matias Quiroz , Robert Kohn , Mattias Villani , Minh-Ngoc Tran

This project investigates the applicability of quasi-Monte Carlo methods to Euclidean lattice systems in order to improve the asymptotic error scaling of observables for such theories. The error of an observable calculated by averaging over…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2013-11-20 Andreas Ammon , Tobias Hartung , Karl Jansen , Hernan Leovey , Andreas Griewank , Micheal Müller-Preussker

The standard Monte Carlo estimator $\widehat{I}_N^{\mathrm{MC}}$ of $\int fd\omega$ relies on independent samples from $\omega$ and has variance of order $1/N$. Replacing the samples with a determinantal point process (DPP), a repulsive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-22 Guillaume Gautier , Rémi Bardenet , Michal Valko

Ab-initio quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) methods are a state-of-the-art computational approach to obtaining highly accurate many-body wave functions. Although QMC methods are widely used in physics and chemistry to compute ground-state energies,…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2022-01-21 Kousuke Nakano , Abhishek Raghav , Sandro Sorella

We design and implement a novel algorithm for computing a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimator of the cumulative distribution function of a quantity of interest in problems with random input parameters or initial conditions. Our approach…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-08-26 Søren Taverniers , Daniel M. Tartakovsky

We evaluate numerically-precise Monte Carlo (MC), Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) and Randomised Quasi-Monte Carlo (RQMC) methods for computing probabilistic reachability in hybrid systems with random parameters. Computing reachability probability…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2018-04-16 Mariia Vasileva , Paolo Zuliani
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