Related papers: Generalization of the model of conflict between tw…
In the United States the laws regulating the carrying of firearms in public vary state-to-state. In a highly publicized event, the Governor of New Mexico recently issued an emergency order temporarily banning the carrying of firearms in…
Individuals have an intuitive perception of what makes a good coincidence. Though the sensitivity to coincidences has often been presented as resulting from an erroneous assessment of probability, it appears to be a genuine competence,…
Within the framework of Game Theory, contests study decision-making in those situations or conflicts when rewards depend on the relative rank between contenders rather than their absolute performance. By relying on the formalism of Tullock…
Mathematical models of the real world are simplified representations of complex systems. A caveat to using mathematical models is that predicted causal effects and conditional independences may not be robust under model extensions, limiting…
Consider stochastic models for the spread of an infection in a structured community, where this structured community is itself described by a random network model. Some common network models and transmission models are defined and large…
Adversarial examples can be defined as inputs to a model which induce a mistake - where the model output is different than that of an oracle, perhaps in surprising or malicious ways. Original models of adversarial attacks are primarily…
We study the effect of random perturbations in the Human and Nature Dynamics (HANDY) model. HANDY models the interactions between human population, depletion, and consumption of natural resources. HANDY explains how endogenous human--nature…
The population dynamics underlying the diffusion of ideas hold many qualitative similarities to those involved in the spread of infections. In spite of much suggestive evidence this analogy is hardly ever quantified in useful ways. The…
This study presents a spatiotemporal dual Bayesian model that examines both the occurrence and number of conflict fatalities using event-level data from Ethiopia (1997-2024), sourced from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED)…
We analyze conflict between a citizenry and an insurgent group over a fixed resource such as land. The citizenry has an elected leader who proposes a division such that, the lower the land ceded to the insurgents, the higher the cost of…
A simple model for simulating tug of war game as varying the player number in a team is discussed to identify the slow pace of fast change. This model shows that a large number of information sources leads slow change for the system. Also,…
For a society to remain healthy and prosperous, people must collectively behave and act to contribute to the common good, even if there is often a tradeoff against their individual benefit. Paradigmatic examples include the adoption of…
Measuring the intensity of events is crucial for monitoring and tracking armed conflict. Advances in automated event extraction have yielded massive data sets of "who did what to whom" micro-records that enable data-driven approaches to…
In a refreshing mathematical investigation, Mark (2018) shows that status hierarchy may facilitate the emergence of cooperation in groups. Despite the contribution, the present paper notes that there are limitations in Mark's model that…
Epidemic models are always simplifications of real world epidemics. Which real world features to include, and which simplifications to make, depend both on the disease of interest and on the purpose of the modelling. In the present paper we…
The intent of control argumentation frameworks is to specifically model strategic scenarios from the perspective of an agent by extending the standard model of argumentation framework in a way that takes unquantified uncertainty regarding…
Pedestrians are often encountered walking in the company of some social relations, rather than alone. The social groups thus formed, in variable proportions depending on the context, are not randomly organised but exhibit distinct features,…
Many current challenges involve understanding the complex dynamical interplay between the constituents of systems. Typically, the number of such constituents is high, but only limited data sources on them are available. Conventional…
Graph games of infinite length are a natural model for open reactive processes: one player represents the controller, trying to ensure a given specification, and the other represents a hostile environment. The evolution of the system…
This paper introduces a reaction-advection-diffusion system that models interactions among three actors: a target, a partaker, and a guardian. The framework is versatile, capturing phenomena ranging from the emergence and movement of crime…